Thursday, August 25, 2016

Thursday Morning Tropical Update: Florida and Gulf States in Crosshairs

Good morning everyone. I wanted to do a quick tropical update on the developing tropical wave that is currently approaching the Caribbean...

The national hurricane center now gives this a 50% chance of developing into a tropical storm which would be named Hermine. 

Current model guidance brings this to a land falling tropical cyclone...

National Hurricane Center agrees...

The question is how strong does this get. I am fairly confident we see this become at least a Tropical Storm. If this is able to track into the Gulf of Mexico then I see the opportunity for additional strengthening into a hurricane.

Right now I like the European models projection the best..

This tries to develop towards a Cat 1 hurricane, but would likely stay a tropical storm. IF we see a track just to the west of this then it will have a better chance to develop over the warm Gulf. At this time I give that possibility equal chances.

More updates tomorrow. 


  1. Hey Will,

    Just checked your site after learning about the possibility of a tropical storm going up the coast. Will this make for some good waves to surf this week?

    Irrelevant question that I been thinking about with a buddy of mine: What town (in your estimate) got hit hardest with the heaviest snow during that monster blizzard January 2016? According to your map it looks like Morristown...


    1. Hey Drew,

      The storms wont make it too far north but they still might have some impact on the surf later this week.

      As for the blizzard, In NJ Morristown and Long Valley had some of the two highest totals I saw. I was in Long Valley and recorded 30". I know Morris Plains reported around the same.