Monday, August 22, 2016

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Tracking the Tropics

Good morning everyone. Well it is that time of year where we need to keep our eye on the tropics and the development and threat of hurricanes/tropical storms. Currently the Atlantic is in a very favorable state for storm development and we already have a few disturbances on the maps to track. Before we get there lets do a quick summary of this week's weather..

  • The week will start off cooler than normal with temperatures in the low to mid 80's.
    • This is the result of a front that moved through yesterday
  • As we head towards the end of the week temps will rise into the mid to high 80's but not many chances for unsettled weather in sight
  • For the most part, a picture perfect week.

Back to the tropics. The National Hurricane Center currently has there eye on a few systems..

The first storm named Fiona is projected to curve away from land and not become an imminent threat over next few days. You can see model projections on this below..

The second two systems however could be more of a concern. Initially, we are going to have to closely track the yellow X (called invest 99L) which is projected to potentially develop into a tropical system. Right now models are projecting this can be a land threat..

The next few days should give us a lot of information on how strong this system gets (does it become a tropical storm) and if it will track more north or south of this spread you are seeing. 

I am not going to focus on looking at individual model projections on this storm yet. Some of them, such as the Canadian weather model, have been insisting this hits the US but it would be premature to show those outputs at this time. 

Regardless, we need to be on alert especially given how warm the water in the tropics is currently. This gives the storm fuel to develop all else equal..

After we track and resolve the fate of this system, more threats should stay on the horizon as we are now entering the most active period of the tropical season.

More to come, stay tuned. 

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