Monday, August 29, 2016

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Dual Tropical Storm Threat This Week

Good morning, hope everyone had a good weekend. The focus today will be on tracking two tropical depressions that will effect the country this week. We have been discussing the main threat since last week and now it is time to hone in on impacts.

As an overview, here is the current state of the Atlantic..


You can see three main systems on this image. Tropical depression 9 is the main concern as 8 will scrape by the outer banks and hurricane Gaston will not hit land. 

As stands most major models take tropical depression into the Gulf of Mexico then curve it northeast into Flordia...


In terms of intensity, many of these hurricane models project this makes it to tropical storm strength..

I agree with this projection. I do not think however that this becomes a hurricane. Regardless, it will still have impacts on northwestern Flordia and possibly the coastal Carolinas by the time we get to the end of this week.

The National Hurricane Center is onboard with this..


The most aggressive projections of this storm are from the two main operational hurricane models. The HWRF model for example has a Cat 1 storm at landfall...



The pink colors represent winds 65 knots plus. I think this is overdone and these hurricane models have been overdone before. I do like this track however and think the west coast of Florida sees at least 40 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 65. 

A lot can still change with this storm in terms of track and intensity. I think after the next two days we will get a much clearer picture. Regardless, the tropics are going to maintain extremely active for the foreseeable future. 

I will comment more this week. Thanks for reading. 

2 comments:

  1. So sick of all the heat. Do you see a pattern change that trends more towards the cooler temps coming up?

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    Replies
    1. Little cool down next few days but 1st half of Sept looks hot unfortunately. I hate it too but heat can't last forever.

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