Thursday, April 7, 2016

Thursday Morning Weather Discussion: Eyeing Snow This Weekend

Good morning everyone. Well as I discussed we all know the drivers behind this cold air underway. Things might feel little warmer today and Friday, but do not be fooled. The next surge of arctic air arrives this weekend and this time snow looks like it can be in the cards for our area Saturday into Saturday night. 

It is all going to start today with a front that will bring rain into our area..



In the wake of this front, cold air pours back into the Northeast with snow showers in the interior tomorrow..



We then have a strong disturbance along an approaching arctic front on Saturday that has the potential to cause some mischief along the east coast..



As this disturbance dives down into the region (bringing bitter cold with it) it looks like it may be sharp enough to spawn a low pressure center off the coast on Saturday into Saturday night...



This would certainty be snow given the depth of this cold air mass.  Almost every model is trying to show this low develop which means any one in PA, NNJ, NY, up into Eastern New England needs to be ready for flakes to fly!

Now we have one big variable that we really have not had all year supporting this, a -NAO or blocking high pressure over Greenland. This will aid in helping that disturbance intensify by slowing down the flow and "blocking" it for escaping. I show the big picture view of this below..



This gives me confidence that we all have a decent shot here of this occurring. In terms of snow accumulations, I would still stay conservative with a general 1-3 inches from all of central and northern PA into Northern New Jersey extending into eastern New England. Higher amounts are possible but it is hard to nail that down at this time.

The Canadian model is closest to my idea of snowfall at this time. I think more falls in eastern New England than what it shows, and also am not convinced of amounts higher that 4 inches in NJ yet. Regardless its a decent estimate..




Many more updates to come! Stay Tuned!

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