Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Wednesday Morning Weather Update: A Closer Look at Next Week's Winter Weather

Good morning everyone. As I mentioned on Monday we will have a big chill coming to town next week thanks to a visit from the polar vortex. The natural question is can it snow? The short answer is yes but I wouldn't get my hopes up for anything substantial in the big city areas. 

Here is an updated look at the arrival of the big chill Sunday..



Air temperatures will be up to 20 degrees below normal in spots of the northeast early next week. This means highs in the upper 30's to low 40's and lows in the 20's. Much colder to the north obviously. 

As this cold shot arrives, it can bring with it some snow showers Sunday..




We then turn our attention to a potential potent clipper system for Tuesday. Models have been ranging from showing a decent accumulating snow event somewhere between the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Latest guidance has brought this more to the New England front..


I am leaning more toward this camp. This would give New England at shot at accumulating snow. It can happen guys but its very rare to have a big accumulating snow event in the Mid-Atlantic in early April. You will find that models tend to over exaggerate events a week away just to adjust to reality. This is why I didn't even bother to comment yesterday on the European or Canadian model that showed a foot of snow in Northern NJ. 

In any event, you can see this can pack quite the punch for New England Tuesday..


We will focus more on this in the days to come.


Moving on, this pattern still has some juice left for later next week. Long term models have signals all over them that a bigger storm can develop end of next week on the heals of this arctic air mass. I always say look for storms on the front and back of big arctic invasions. In this case here is what the models are showing for its backside..



This is from the European ensemble valid Friday next week. Sure its a long way off but this projection of pressure placement does argue for a storm to develop somewhere in the east. If we go to the surface it has a low projection average here..



I am going to keep my eye on this as it really has my attention. Again, I am not calling for a big city snowstorm here I am simply stating that a bigger storm is possible. In terms of snow, I would naturally say interior New England would have the shot if everything came together correctly. 

So in summary, we have as much action on the table as you can possibly have for early April. A major late season cold shot arrives Sunday, followed by two shots at winter weather Tuesday then later next week. I favor interior New England to see anything substantial when it is all said and done. Mid Atlantic areas I would put at the shot of seeing a few flakes or a light accumulation when it is all said and done. 

Stay tuned for more details! Might have a video coming this week. 

2 comments:

  1. All I can do for the Elmira/ Binghamton, NY areas (there are other areas as well) is to look to the Rubik's Cube effect of combinations of ways for areas that have not had much snow this year for an answer. To this day, the effect has not been beaten-it cannot be beaten. Here is a fun fact, the Binghamton, NY average annual snowfall is around 83 inches. Currently a little over 22 inches has fallen there (this fact also mentioned in a recent Accuweather video. Come down from the 1600 ft. hill, where the NWS is located and takes their official measurements for Binghamton and you get about 8 inches for the year. What are the Rubik's Cube Effects of combinations-here are a few: the storm is too far East, North, West, or South. The area is on the warm side of the storm, the cold air could not catch up with the storm in time. The cold air is pushing the storm to far South or East. The negatively tilted trough is occurring at the wrong time/place/location or not occurring at all. How about, the pattern is too progressive. Further, one piece of energy is stealing energy from the other piece of energy. The location of the ridge out West-I could go on, but will stop here. I have seen all this situations listed above and more. Do those situations sound familiar to anyone else not getting snow this past winter?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think your argument has some merit. I always noticed that in any given season where it wants to snow it snows consistently and where it does not want to snow always gets screwed. I cant say your wrong about next week. Your town is right on the boarder of where the snow belt will prob set up. If your theory is correct then I guess you should not expect much as the Monday clipper will prob adjust more north. Also, I think the higher elevation areas do the best. Lets see how the combo does!

      Delete