Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion: Latest Storm Trends on Models

Good morning everyone. As I started discussing yesterday I am tracking a storm threat for late this weekend/early next week. The atmospheric setup look ripe in terms of the players we need to see on the field. Now it will all come down to if these players want to come together correctly to form a big storm. At this time I am still not seeing large support for a I-95 or big city event. Climatology it is very hard for that to occur this time of year. It can happen but everything would have to really come together perfectly. For greatest impact I still am focusing on the interior.

With that being said, latest model trends have been more east and more progressive with this storm threat. I am going to use the European ensemble system to show trends.  

Looking above you have the old run of the euro ensemble on the left and new run on the right. Very hard to tell but the right image is flatter with the slope between the red and blue zone. Also notice out in the pacific the blue blob is closer to the coast on the right image. This represents a more progressive trend in the energy. This means the flow is faster on the new run which pushes the energy more to the east. At the surface the result is the new ensemble mean low position being to the east as seen below..

This latest trend actually helps with the forecast here. To me, it starts to eliminate the possibility of an inland runner. It will now come down to will this storm effect the northeast or go out to sea. It really is too early to tell but we will learn a lot over the next 48 hours studying these trends.

The GFS is on board with the out to sea idea (as it always is this far out). Keep in mind this is an operational model below and the images above are ensemble means. I would focus on the ensemble means for now. 

The European operation is similar to its ensemble with a low just off the coast..

The most aggressive would be its ensembles control run which is really juiced up. Likely this is overdone..

So as always we have a model spread but the clear trend is more east today with this. If this progressive trend continues it would eliminate the storm threat. I am not ready to speculate yet until one more day of model data. Thanks for reading, more to come. 

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