Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion: So How Warm Will It Get?

Today through Friday marks a true period of spring with the warmest temps we have seen all year. It is no secret that is is caused by a rising jet stream over our area which brings in warm air form the south as seen below..

As usual, it is the opposite out west with very stormy conditions. Check out that negative or blue area over Mexico. That is a very impressive departure from normal which will actually cause snow to fall in the mountains down there! Pretty cool stuff. Think of that, as we bask in 70 degree temps there is snow in Mexico.

Anyway, here are some latest model projections for high temps tomorrow..

Nam..

GFS..

Canadian..

As you can see, a wide range of support for temps in the low 70s for most areas!

This warm air mass continues until the weekend when cooler conditions move back in. Expect temps in the high 50's to low 60's this weekend.

In terms of the long range pattern, we could see a return to colder than normal conditions as we get closer to March 20th but by then seeing the shot at any type of winter event is  rare. We will see how things unfold. As I declared early last week, welcome to spring!


3 comments:

  1. Yea Willy, I see an impressive strat warming spike going on right now on the 10mb polar region chart. The last big peak was around Feb 11, and we had that 4 day cold spell right after that, when it went below zero here in NoNJ for one frigid night. But none of the models or discussions I saw this AM seem to foresee any big temp dip over the next 14 days, hardly even gets down to 40. There's still plenty of cold air above the Arctic Circle, North Pole temps don't really start climbing until around mid-April. But there's so much ridge-supporting energy right now in the mid-latitudes, looks like the Nino pattern isn't fading as fast as had been anticipated. Supposedly the GFS hinted at a polar vortex split before the end of March, but even that appeared to affect Europe more than North America. And the GFS's track record on long-term polar dynamics supposedly isn't so good. Well, I'll keep the hat and gloves and scarf ready anyway, just in case that stratosphere warming event makes it down to the troposphere and somehow manages to push a cold shot out over the Great Lakes and into the zonal flow. Jim G

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  2. That's correct, the nino still is very impressive. I agree that this strat warm can throw us a few suprises late March but it's hard to bet on that. Then again, March is notorious for crazy weather. It would be fun to see one of those rare late season higher elevation events. This winter was a big learning experience for many. That super nino along w warm atlantic really torched us. The other factors like placement of nino and blocking in many cases got overpowered.

    Oh well, on to severe weather season and speculation on winter 2017..LA nina??? We will see

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  3. This could well be WX sci-fi, but today's GFS and GEFS are looking for a trough bringing nippy temps on the 25th and 26th. Night and early AM surface temps would be around 28-30F here in NJ-land. If all the ducks lined up in terms of a coastal disturbance and upper air flow (i.e., the "phasing" that mostly eluded us this season), winter could do an encore. Obviously, it's a long, long shot, but obviously you (and everyone else interested in east coast wx) will be keeping an eye out.

    Winter 2017 -- yea, what's up with that??? Is anyone talking about that yet? But first, hurricane season -- with Nino receding, I imagine that it could be more active than last year. If a Nina begins, it could be quite active. Always something to keep an eye on. Jim G

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