Thursday, March 24, 2016

Thursday Weather Update: A Nice Easter Weekend Ahead, April Cold Shot

Good morning everyone. We have beautiful spring weather underway. Temperatures will hover in the low 60's today and hit the low 70's tomorrow. We will see some showers tomorrow as a cold front moves through the area.


This will all clear out by later in the day Friday paving the way for a nice weekend with sunshine and temperatures in the low 60's. 

As we head into early next week a storm will effect the area Monday with rain..

Still watching how this evolves. I would not be surprised to see some frozen precip up in extreme northern New England on the backside of this. In the wake of this storm, temperatures should warm up next week possibly into the 70's by Thursday and Friday. 

Our attention will then turn to an impressive cold shot that is expected to dive down into the area the first week of April..

The image above shows the temperature anomalies projected by the European ensemble. In many areas, especially in the central US it could feel more like late February rather than early April. I expect temperatures to become very chilly over our area as well during this period. You can see below the projected position of the jet stream..


This is very impressive. Anytime you see such a powerful ridge of high pressure over Alaska (seen by red colors) its response is to drill down cold air from Canada to the east. You can see this projected on the map by the blue colors flooding the country. This is called an negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation pattern. Due to the projected magnitude of this cold shot we can not rule out seeing flakes fly again before it is all said and done. No I am not saying we see a snowstorm but I am saying snowflakes would not be out of the question with an air mass like this. Up in New England anything goes.

So we will see how this long range pattern evolves. For now enjoy nice nice weather ahead and Happy Easter!


2 comments:

  1. Hey Willy, I have no doubt that we're in for some nippy days in early April. But wow, that's some killer trough there showing up on the Euro ensemble. GFS is showing about the same, actually. But hey, don't all the models tend to over-dramatize just a tad when you go that far out, past one week? I mean, it makes sense that the big strat temp spike last week in the polar regions is going to have an effect, the MJO is headed eastward toward the Atlantic, the EPO will be coming out of a negative spike and all, but still . . . past one week, the models seem to largely be dancing on their own internal constructions . . . we shall see. Jim G

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    1. Yup they do usually over play the intensity of these cold shots just to moderate with time. However in this case there is enormous agreement in every major ensemble suite. It also follows the response you would expect from the strasophere. Judah Cohen just put out an excellent write up today on this.

      So we know it will cool down now the question is will it be severe. More of a chance for central states but we might sneak into those 10 plus degree C negative temp anomalies. Keeps a little excitement in the mix before this season is over for good.

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