Monday, March 21, 2016

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Storm Summary and Week Ahead

Good morning everyone. What a roller coaster ride it was tracking this storm (or lack there of) over the last week. It is no secret I had a tough time with this one as many did. I have never seen models so volatile so close to an event before. Even using non modeling methods like historical analogs did not help me much! Here are some of the latest snowfall reports coming in. This map will be updated later today with final numbers..

I have heard of a few 6 in amounts so far in CT and Mass. Snow is still falling there and when it is all said and done there will be some areas of 6+. You can see the radar is currently cranking over that area.

Nice moderate bands of snow currently extending from Mass up into eastern Maine right now. This snow will accumulate more over the next few hours. 

For NJ it was a complete bust, even for the 1-3 inch amounts! Its amazing how when you study this storm the difference between a dusting and a foot was so small when looking at the upper atmosphere Literally if the upper air disturbance diving in from the midwest was a little faster this would have been the big one models were showing on Thursday. At least some areas in ENE lucked out. My maps did ok up there overall. 

Moving on to this week, temps will start to warm up by mid week reaching the mid to high 60's. A cold front then approaches by the end of the week bringing the chance for some unsettled weather Friday..

This cold front Friday is associated with a big snowstorm that will be moving through the Midwest middle of this week. The end result will be a chilly weekend with temperatures in the 50's for many areas. 

As we head into next week the weather pattern stays more on the chilly side. This should continue into early April. This is all due to a persistent ridge of high pressure developing over Alaska..

This will keep things cool and stormy especially over the central and eastern CONUS. Keep in mind it is late March now so cooler than normal is nothing we all can not handle. 

Could we see flakes fly again? Sure we could, but the chances at anything substantial are extremely low. At this point you want to just root spring on and look forward to next winter. 

Now spring is no slouch weather wise. We have severe weather to track which should keep things interesting. As we head deeper into the warmer months I will be releasing weekly weather summaries every Monday morning then updating during then week when appropriate.  I will also do a review of my winter forecast sometime over next few weeks. It did not do great this year but I always like to still tally up the points. 

Thanks for checking in. 

1 comment:

  1. Too bad that the NAO took a little peak last weekend, despite its generally depressed state lately. The factors just didn't line up right for snow in NJ, the zonal patterns were too fast, too progressive. I see that another big western ridge/eastern trough is expected in the first days of April given a strongly negative EPO. One month ago, it might have meant something to you snow people. It still might get a bit nippy though, especially after dark, so don't put the heavy coats away yet. And there's always next winter. Just my half-assed thought, but it seems like there has been a winter-time macro pattern in the east since 2013 that favors cold and snow. Sure, this past winter was above normal in temps and around average for snow, thanks to an historic-strength El Nino. But still, with that January blizzard and that 4 day cold wave in February (which brought out the minus signs for the first time in many years), this past winter still went down punching. Without that Nino, it might well have been another record-breaking winter in terms of severity (I'm guessing). If there is such a winter pattern, will be interesting to see if it holds up this December and into next year. There was an article in SciAm a few years ago claiming that loss of sea ice in the Arctic is helping to promote a long-term severe winter pattern in the eastern US. Jim G