Good morning everyone. Been pretty busy lately so lets get right to the point. A cold front will cross into the area this afternoon leaving the slight chance of a few thunderstorms..
The good news is in the wake of this front expect a break in the heat we are currently witnessing. Temps will hover in the low 80's through most of the week. This same front that will usher in cooler temps however will also cause an issue when it comes to the weekend weather.
The frontal boundary is going to stall to our south. This is never a good scenario because it means there is an increased chance for waves of low pressure to develop along that frontal boundary and cause rounds of rain as we get later into the week. How and where these waves of low pressure occur depends on the upper level pattern.
So lets jump into late week and take a look..
The image above is one models projection of a wave of low pressure developing along the stalled front on Friday. You can see the widespread area of rain which would cause the whole day to be a washout.
If I go to another model (GFS) however you will notice it keeps this rain to our south..
This all has to do with how amplified the upper level pattern is. The first image I showed was the NAM model and it has a sharper eastern trough due to a stronger western ridge. The gfs has a much weaker trough due to a weaker ridge.
I do not have the images for the European model but they are closer to the NAM with the wetter scenario. You can see the position of the low below on the euro, I just do not have the printout of precip..
So what is the bottom line? At this time I am expecting a wet day for Friday. This could possibly bleed into to Saturday, but based on the data I am looking at I think we can salvage most of the weekend. The GFS model is likely in its error mode and too far south and east with the frontal boundary. This means the NAM and European most likely have the right idea with this system.
Since this is a complicated situation I will definitely have an update tomorrow or Thursday.
Thanks for checking in.