Good morning everyone. I wanted to give a special update on projections for a tropical storm/hurricane that could impact the SE United States next week. This is only a preliminary update and as the days go I will go into more detail, but I want to give everyone an idea of what is currently going on. The potential impact timing is early to mid next week.
Lets start off with the current situation...
Looking above you can see we have a tropical system just to the north of S. America. This is tropical storm Erika and it has been developing over the last 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has issued this outlook..
You can see the cone which represents its possible tracks and the timing they are expecting for this system. The H in the black circles represent that they are expecting this to develop into a hurricane. It is not a surprise that if you compare the current model spread to the NHC's track it looks similar below..
You can see that at this point many models are pointing to a storm that either hits southeastern FL and then curves northward or in some cases drifts into the Gulf. In order to determine which solution will be likely we have to monitor the upper level pattern which steers hurricanes.
Looking above at the GFS Ensemble you can see a big ridge over SE Canada, and a circle off of GA which represents the storm. The placement of this upper level ridge (red colors) is key. If you get that ridge slightly more east or west it will have a drastic impact on the trak of this storm. That is what will determine if it skirts FL and goes out to sea or its more of a direct land hit. I am not ready to jump on any solution yet. I just want you guys to know this track can change over next few days even tho the model spread says one thing.
Looking at an actual projection of the HWRF model (special hurricane model) of where it expect this to make landfall. Below is the simulated radar..
Just one model projection, but it is a model that will be come more relevant as we get closer to the event.
Stay tuned I will be updating daily as this situation evolves!