Friday, May 29, 2015

Friday Weekend Weather Update: Make Your Plans for Tomorrow, Sunday Looks Wet

Good afternoon. I hope everyone had a good week and are looking forward to relaxing this weekend. This weekend will feature a mixed bag of weather. We have a nice summer like day tomorrow (Saturday) then things will go downhill from there as a low pressure system develops along a front and stalls. This means yes rain for Sunday and possibly though Monday! Models differ a little on how this evolves but lets take a look.

High pressure remains in control offshore tomorrow promoting the nice weather overall. There could be a few pop up thunderstorms but I am not too concerned at this point..

Notice however that low pressure system over the Mississippi Valley. That is what is going to sweep its cold front into our area Sunday...

Looking above you can see the showers and storms moving into the area for Sunday as that front establishes itself.  This lingers though Monday..

What you are now seeing above is a stationary front (the stalled cold front from Sunday) with a low pressure center developing along it on Monday. This would extend the rain and possibly pile up some impressive totals. We will have to see if this extension of the rain really ends up being a big deal. As I said before not all models are on board with the impressive rainfall totals. 

To put a little more prescriptive on this. I included below a view of the jet stream. You can see the trough or dip in the jet stream over our area for Sunday and Monday..

The red lines represent the flow of the air. We will have a moist southeast flow from the Gulf which will help enhance the rain totals along that stationary front.

In any event, not the greatest end to the weekend in store but we salvage one day which is better than nothing. 

I know I said I had an El Nino post coming and I do! It was a crazy week at work and I will hopefully be able to get it out sometime this week. Stay tuned and enjoy the weekend!

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Tuesday Weekly Weather Summary: A Summer Week Ahead With Some Storms

Good morning everybody. I hope everyone had an enjoyable Memorial Day weekend and had some time to relax. It was a perfect transition into kicking off summer this weekend as temps have been gradually increasing and will stay elevated all week. 

A large ridge of high pressure is currently over our area bringing with it warm and now humid conditions. This air mass will be responsible for temps in the 80's all week. It will probably hit 90 in spots as well over the next two days. As this warm and humid air mass sits over our area we have to focus on a cold front that will approach the region tomorrow night..

Anytime we see a low pressure system up in southern Canada (in this case just north of the lakes) during the summer months we know that its cold front is on its way. When you have cooler air running into a warm moist air mass you have the potential for storms to develop. Its not always as simple as that of course. You also need the proper "instability" in the atmosphere to fire up the storms. For example, if you have a elevated layer of warm air above the surface it can prevent air parcels from rising thus cutting off the development of storms. 

In the case of tomorrow, it looks like the environment will be ripe for some storm development. I do not expect very strong storms however. Below is the instability profile for Wednesday..

Without getting too technical these are values for the "lifted index" which is the temp difference between an air parcel and its surrounding environment. The image above shows that there will be some lift or instability but not anything in the severe category. 

To drill down further here is a high resolution model's projection of the storm line for tomorrow eve/night..

Lets see how this plays out.

After we get though tomorrow, the cold front will stall off shore and we will have more shots at some unsettled weather heading towards the weekend. I will update on the weekend of course as we approach.

Don't forget, sometime this week (when time permits) I am going to do a special post on El Nino and how it effects our weather pattern. This is due to an El Nino pattern that is currently developing.

Stay tuned!

Friday, May 22, 2015

Friday Weather Update: Memorial Day Weekend Still Looking Stellar

Good afternoon everybody. I hope everybody is winding down their work week and looking forward to this long holiday weekend. Today is a perfect representation of how the rest of the weekend will go. Mostly sunny skies with temperatures generally in the low 70's. Sure its not summer weather but i'll take it. 

So lets take a look day by day. If we study the current pattern of the jet stream you can see we have a trough or a vortex sitting over southeast Canada. This is causing the cooler weather and also those cold night time lows we have been seeing over the last few nights. In fact we could have more frost in northwestern counties as we head into tonight!

This vortex lingers through tomorrow holding temps in the mid 60's to the north and high 60's to the south for Saturday.

As we head into Sunday a ridge or "rise" in the jet stream starts to come into our region. This will cause temps to gradually warm..

The red colors above represent this ridge. Notice that blue vortex has now really retreated to the north. The result will be temps in the low to mid 70's on Sunday then mid to high 70's once we hit Memorial Day. 

This pattern then looks to lock in for the rest of next week and possibly into June. This would mean warmer than normal temps to end off the month. Summer is here guys and it isn't going anywhere for a while. I notice a good follower of mine "Jim" referenced the lack of rainfall this spring and he is correct. It really has been pretty dry hence boring weather wise. 

I expect this trend to stay the same as we enter an "el nino" summer. If any of you have been following the headlines you might have heard mention of El Nino. I will dedicate a post to El Nino next week, what it is, and its impacts on our weather pattern. Stay tuned!

Enjoy the weekend guys!

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Tuesday Morning: Taking a Look at Today's Storm Threat

Good morning. As I mentioned yesterday, we have the shot at some storms later this afternoon as a cold front approaches from our west. At this time I do not expect a large storm breakout but there will definatly be areas that get effected later today with some strong storms. 

Here is the simulated radar for this afternoon..

Notice the pockets of storms extending up into New England. I would assign a 40-50% chance that any one location gets effected. These storms will form from lifting due to an approaching cold front from the west..

Following the passage of this front, the weather will be very tame heading into the weekend. I can guarantee you that this Memorial Day weekend with not be a scorcher. If anything, it will be a little chilly on the beach with temps in the low 70's but with plenty of Sunshine. 

I will have another update on the weekend later this week. 

Thanks for checking in. 

Monday, May 18, 2015

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Excellent Week Ahead, Mostly Dry ex Tomorrow

Good morning. We could not ask for better weather this week. Temps will moderate into the low to mid 70's through the weekend with plenty of sunshine. The only t-storm threat I see right now is for tomorrow evening. 

Since this is Memorial Day week I will cut a video tonight around 730 that goes into more detail on tomorrow's storm threat along with a closer look at the holiday weekend.

Stay Tuned. 

Friday, May 15, 2015

Weekend Weather Update

Good morning, I wanted to give a quick update on the weekend weather. Overall things should not be too bad although we will have some periods of unsettled weather especially Saturday. This is due to a low pressure system to our west that will drag in its associated warm front tonight then stall out its cold front over our area Saturday.

Below you can see the models projection of weather for Saturday afternoon..

As I mentioned we can also see some showers tonight with the warm front but the main rain threat is tomorrow afternoon. There is some support for some thunderstorms to develop but nothing that I see as severe at this time.

Looking at Sunday, things should be mostly sunny with temps in the low to mid 80's. A isolated shower is possible but overall things should stay dry.

Thanks for checking in. 

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Weekly Weather Summary: Another Spring Week Ahead, Cooler Than Last Week

Good morning! We got a taste of summer last week and this week it will feel more like spring temperature wise. 70's will be more common compared to 80's which I am sure no one will be complaining about. 

The only exception is today where it will be very warm. 

You can see below that a Canadian high pressure system will be responsible for keeping temperatures cooler..

This is due to a flow of air coming in from the north as opposed to last week when the flow was from the south. Night time lows will be on the chilly side, especially Tuesday and Wednesday night were a lot of areas will see low 40's. 30's are not out of the question up in New England. 

As we hit the weekend a warm front will approach the area then potentially stall out offshore.

 This could cause episodes of unsettled weather. Translation- chance for showers and maybe a storm Saturday and Sunday. Temps will also start to increase as we head into next week.

Thanks all for now, thanks for checking in. 

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Mid Week Weather Update: More Nice Weather Heading Into Weekend, Storms Possible Next Week

Good morning everyone. We have more beautiful weather in store as we head into the weekend. Unfortunately, plenty of sunshine and temps in the 80's do not make this blog too interesting. That last sentence sums up the weather through Sunday. 

The only real relevant topic right now is a tropical system currently developing off the southeast coast as seen below..

I am not expecting this system to move up the coast. Instead it will linger around the Carolina's then get swept out to sea as a cold front arrives early next week. This is the cold front that can cause thunderstorms for our area Monday and Tuesday..

At this time the amount of instability (differences in temperature at different levels of the atmosphere) is debatable so we might just end up with some showers. This will be something to keep an eye on as we approach this period. Right now best shot at Thunderstorms is the surrounding central PA area. 

Thats all for now..enjoy this beautiful weather!

Monday, May 4, 2015

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Summer Like Week in Store!

Good morning, we finally catch our big break this week and we get a taste of summer. This means plenty of sunshine and temps in the 70's all week! In fact, today it will get into the 80's. 

You can see above the signature of this pattern with a big ridge of high pressure over the east. This allows all the warm air from the south to flow on up into our area. 

The only unsettled weather I see though Friday is a chance at showers tomorrow as a front moves through the area..

This should not be too big of a deal and will not be anything to write home about. 

That is really all for now guys. Not much more to talk about which is usually the case when the weather gets really nice. Since we will be dealing with warmer temps over next few weeks that will increase the chance at severe weather if certain ingredients come together (warm humid air mass ahead of an approaching front). This is something I will keep an eye on. 

As we approach the weekend I will put out an update for weekend weather. 

Friday, May 1, 2015

Weekend Weather Update: Smooth Sailing

Quick video on what to expect this weekend. Been a while since I cut a video so I figured id mix it up.