Monday, April 27, 2015

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Temps Gradually Rise Till Wed, Possible Coastal Storm Late Week

Good morning everyone. We got another week ahead of us and it appears things MIGHT turn out ok weather wise. A lot of that statement depends on the track of a potential coastal storm later in the week, but up until l then we got some decent weather locked in. 

Let me start off with temperatures over the next 7 days. This is a North Jersey location but overall it gives everyone a general sense of what to expect..


This is taken from the GFS model so that high temp of 57 Friday is based on the GFS having the coastal storm effect our area during that time period. The European model does not have the storm coming up the coast so consequently the temperature is higher on that model. Regardless, you can see temps are on the increase though Wednesday. AS I mentioned over the weekend if you average these all out not the warmest weather pattern but very tolerable.

So lets look at the situation for the end of this week.

GFS Model..



Has a nice wound up coastal storm valid Friday Night. If this occurred it would bring with it wind driven rain. 

European..


This model is slow to develop the storm so it drifts out to sea.

So what will occur? As always it depends on how the energy sets up...



Looking above on the GFS models upper air projection we have a sharp northern disturbance diving down and catching a lingering southern short wave or in other words piece of energy that is moving across the southern US.  Because the model has this northern disturbance sharper than the European, it is causing a earlier phase thus a storm that is closer to the coast. 

If I had to put a probability on this I would say we have a 50/50 shot of getting impacted by unsettled weather Friday and Saturday morning. 

If this spares the area, then the week as a whole including the weekend looks great. Even if the storm does hit, most of the weekend still should make out ok.

More on this by mid-week. 

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