Monday, September 29, 2014

After Cold Shot This Weekend....

Well the answer is very pleasant weather similar to what we experienced today (little colder due to seasonal adjustments) will follow. I think October overall will be a nice month along the east with the unsettled weather staying to the west. I am gaining confidence however the the last week of October heading into November is when the pattern really will wake up along the east. Here is one of the reasons why...

Take a look at the Bering Sea on October 8th...

Model is projecting a large area of low pressure developing in that region. A rule of thumb is anytime we see a big storm system enter the Bering Sea it could lead to similar conditions along the eastern United States 2 1/2- 3 weeks later. That would bring us to the last week of October. Basically, my point is that the peaceful weather in our region may come to an abrupt end in late October as we enter a pattern that should begin to tell the tale of winter.  More on this as the month goes on.

On another quick note, here is the current snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere


Blue shows above normal snow cover, red below normal. As you can see we are off to a good start with snow cover up in the north. What does this mean? Nothing yet, but if this trend continues through the end of October it will have a big impact of the implications for Winter. Research shows that above normal snow growth over Eurasia in the fall leads to an upper air pattern that causes colder than normal conditions over the USA in winter. 

This is one of the reasons why I have not put a winter forecast out yet, I want to let this variable play out first. 

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