Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Wednesday Mid-Week Update

Good morning, looks like for the rest of the week we will have cooler conditions enter our area with temps in the mid to high 60's maybe low 70's through the weekend. This is due to a cold front that is crossing into our area now as shown below..

A few showers will enter our area today associated with this front as seen in the image above as well. 

Things will clear out by tomorrow as high pressure takes control over the area

This high pressure will linger around though the weekend and should spare us of any unsettled weather, maybe only a stray shower or storm.

As far as the month of June is concerned I expect more of the same for our weather pattern. Generally seasonable conditions with limited spells of very warm weather. I am not calling for a very hot summer this year. 

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Memorial Day Weekend Video Summary: Overall Not Bad

Things are turning out to be in line with my original thoughts on this weekend. Unsettled weather will move out as the day progresses on Saturday and the second half of the weekend will be very nice. Updated details in video below.. 

Monday, May 19, 2014

Final Memorial Day Weekend Weather Forecast

Good morning. Well its been a week since I released my peliminary Memorial Day weekend weather forecast. Last Monday I stated 

"expect cooler that normal conditions which means temps in the high 60's to low 70's with the chance of showers and storms on the front end of the weekend."

This was due to a projected trough that would swing through the region. That indeed will happen but it looks like early enough to spare most of the weekend of any unsettled weather. Right now it looks like Friday will be the only day that will be questionable with cloudy conditions at times. In terms of temperatures it will be cooler that normal to start the weekend with temps in the high 60's low 70's, but warm up into the mid 70's by Sunday and Monday.

Here is the trough that will bring showers into our area on late Wednesday night into Thursday..

Resulting in this Thursday morning..

But the unsettled weather moves out on Friday (mostly cloudy on Friday) and we are left with cooler than normal temps Saturday..

But warming up very nicely on Sunday and Monday..Click all images to make bigger and see the printouts 

So overall from two weeks out not a bad forecast and it should be an enjoyable holiday weekend.

Monday, May 12, 2014

Monday May 12th Weekly Summary

Good Morning. It ended up being quite the weekend with summer like conditions. Those conditions will continue today as temps will head into the mid 80's in many spots. Temps will then moderate back into the high 60's tomorrow as some unsettled showers and storms approach our region.  I do not expect a washout for the early part of the week, just partly to mostly cloudy conditions with showers at times. More western parts of the Mid-Atlantic should see more precip out of this unsettled weather. 

By the time we get to Wednesday night the chances at decent rain will increase as waves of low pressure will develop and spread more steady rain into our area especially by Friday. You can see a graphical depiction below valid Thursday morning..

Looks like what you add it all up some decent rainfall will be experienced by some areas especially over PA from this week's activity.

By next weekend things should clear up and I expect partly cloudy conditions on Saturday and mostly Sunny on Sunday, temps in the high 60's. 


I am starting to take a look at the possible weather conditions for memorial day. This is far off from a forecasting perspective but I want to discuss some of my thoughts.

  • The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation will be negative. This increases the chances for more unsettled cooler conditions over our area. Basically this pattern means that we will see high pressure develop over Greenland which in turn causes the jet stream to dip over our region.This is not the only factor to look at however.

  • The long term models are hinting at a trough (area of lower pressure and unsettled cooler conditions shown by blue regions) near the east coast shown below. If this image is taken verbatim we would be fine, but I am concerned that we can see that trough more to the west over our region, especially if the model slows down a storm system entering the west coast. 

  • There will be a trough of low pressure in east Asia 6-10 days before Memorial Day weekend. This usually leads to a similar pattern over the east coast of the USA 6-10 days after. 

What does this all mean at this point? Right now if I had to make a forecast I would say expect cooler that normal conditions which means temps in the high 60's to low 70's with the chance of showers and storms on the front end of the weekend.

Stay tuned. 

Monday, May 5, 2014

Monday Weekly Summary: More Storms for Central, Chilly Weather Continues for Us

Good Morning. The theme this spring so far has been the lack of very warm weather. Sure there have been days here and there where it has warmed up, but overall we have had a chilly spring. That trend will continue in May. This is all due to a very active area of convection or storms around the Indian Ocean that is effecting the placement of the jet stream over our area. The actual name for this is the Madden Julian Oscillation. 

That aside this week will carry the same theme as recent weeks. Partly to mostly Sunny to start, temps in the mid 60's with showers arriving by the end of the week and possibly mid weekend. The central part of the country will see severe storms again by Thursday as another low pressure center brings along a lifting cold front.

Here is an illustration of that front on Thursday..

The focus will be from eastern OK northward towards the lakes. This is the same front that could effect our area with showers on Saturday night as shown below..

As far as the month of  May here is the latest long term model forecast for temps..

More updates to come this week, especially if severe weather becomes a headline.