Monday, May 12, 2014

Monday May 12th Weekly Summary

Good Morning. It ended up being quite the weekend with summer like conditions. Those conditions will continue today as temps will head into the mid 80's in many spots. Temps will then moderate back into the high 60's tomorrow as some unsettled showers and storms approach our region.  I do not expect a washout for the early part of the week, just partly to mostly cloudy conditions with showers at times. More western parts of the Mid-Atlantic should see more precip out of this unsettled weather. 

By the time we get to Wednesday night the chances at decent rain will increase as waves of low pressure will develop and spread more steady rain into our area especially by Friday. You can see a graphical depiction below valid Thursday morning..

Looks like what you add it all up some decent rainfall will be experienced by some areas especially over PA from this week's activity.

By next weekend things should clear up and I expect partly cloudy conditions on Saturday and mostly Sunny on Sunday, temps in the high 60's. 


I am starting to take a look at the possible weather conditions for memorial day. This is far off from a forecasting perspective but I want to discuss some of my thoughts.

  • The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation will be negative. This increases the chances for more unsettled cooler conditions over our area. Basically this pattern means that we will see high pressure develop over Greenland which in turn causes the jet stream to dip over our region.This is not the only factor to look at however.

  • The long term models are hinting at a trough (area of lower pressure and unsettled cooler conditions shown by blue regions) near the east coast shown below. If this image is taken verbatim we would be fine, but I am concerned that we can see that trough more to the west over our region, especially if the model slows down a storm system entering the west coast. 

  • There will be a trough of low pressure in east Asia 6-10 days before Memorial Day weekend. This usually leads to a similar pattern over the east coast of the USA 6-10 days after. 

What does this all mean at this point? Right now if I had to make a forecast I would say expect cooler that normal conditions which means temps in the high 60's to low 70's with the chance of showers and storms on the front end of the weekend.

Stay tuned. 

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