Friday, December 13, 2013

Thursday Night: Play by Play of Tomorrows Event

9am Update: Everything outlined in video below. Models came in a little warmer with the storm last night especially the NAM model. However, as we saw last Sunday the modeling has had a very hard time handling dense arctic air masses. If fact, if you look at what the model projected the temperatures to be at the rain/snow level (5000ft) and what those same temps actually are at 7am, there is not a match. The model is a little warmer. This is why I am not changing any of my forecast ideas for this event. Light snow has spread into area but the heavy accumulating snow will be be until late this morning/afternoon. I will be doing an afternoon video update around 2. 


For areas in the middle zone of 3-5 its all going to depend on how long the arctic air holds if modeling under estimates it you will get more snow than shown. I will know more on that tomorrow morning. And if for some reason you prefer to use other websites for your weather info at least go to the national weather service at, The Weather Channel is really nothing more than a commercialized news company now, its a joke how they present things (naming winter storms for example). They have changed their forecast 5 times since Thursday. 

Heres the map that goes along with video

More to come tomorrow morning. Frequent updates on my twitter


  1. I agree, the fact that they name Winter storms now is absolutely absurd. Also their website loads painfully slow because of all the advertising, and the channel itself never shows the weather anymore. They have really moved in the wrong direction.

    BTW love the blog it's very insightful. Any predictions on the amount of icing we will see at the tail end?

    1. Exactly, once they got bought by NBC it all went down hill. Depends on where you are located. In the center of Morris county for example it looks like the snow could quickly change over to sleet then freezing rain between 10-12am. I don't see ice as a major issue because the change over will be abrupt. Maybe .25" ice after around 6" of snow for that area as an example. And thanks appreciate it.