Monday: Summer Not Over But Cooler Nights Sign of Seasonal Transition

 Good morning. Quick note today. Summer weather is certainly not over yet this year. However over next two weeks we will start to feel a hint of fall as some cooler air masses move into area. This will mostly be felt at night as temperatures will hit the 50s at night for some areas from time to time.

I would still expect another good peroid of heat or two before  summer is all said and done but we are now on the downhill ride to winter.

On another note, hurricane season is really going to start heating up next several weeks. Multiple disturbances are developing in the Atlantic that I will be tracking.

That's all for now.

8am Update: There She Blows

Tropical Storm Isaias is rapidly approaching the region with torrential rain, coastal winds and a tornado threat. This storm moves in fast this morning and exits by later this afternoon. The winds pick up later this morning into the afternoon. The highest winds are near the coasts where they can gust up to 50mph and maybe up to 70 mph in a local spot. The consistent winds will be less than this. Inland there will be gusty winds up to 45 mph but much more rain from this. Several inches of rain will fall NW of I-95 from this storm. 

On the northeastern flank of the storm there is a tornado threat today as rotating storm move in from off the ocean.

Currently here is the radar...

Its center is located over VA currently and racing north.

The heavies rains will be west off the coast and the highest winds will be east near the coast. Gust of 50 mph plus are likely near the coasts and gusts up to 45mph inland today. The peak winds will be this afternoon.

By 11am this storm is really over our area...

There will be an active tornado threat on the northeastern flank of this storm later this morning and afternoon as storm cells move in rapidly off the ocean with some rotation...

Here are estimated peak wind gusts form this storm. Most of these winds occur this afternoon. The models tend  to overdo these amounts so id take 70% of these...

Remember these are gusts not consistent winds. The consistent winds will be up to 45 mph near the coasts and up to 35 mph inland today.

Here are rain projections...

Notice the heaviest rain west off the coast. Again wind threat is east and the rain threat is west. There will be some local amounts over 4" with this.

The storm is ending by later this afternoon with some back end gusty winds...

A quick hitter but with a big punch.

Monday: Tropical Storm Isaias Targets Region Tomorrow

Good morning. It has been a while since I last posted but the occasion calls for it as we will have a rain packed tropical storm approach the area tomorrow. Expect very heavy rains and gusty winds. The biggest wind impacts will be west off the coast and the biggest rain impacts will be along the coast. I expect gusts of at least 50 mph tomorrow at the coast. There is a chance this can still strengthen to a Cat 1 Hurricane but that is not the forecast at this time. I will have another update 8pm tonight. 

Lets take a look...

Tropical storm Isaias currently is spinning off the cost of Florida. Its strength is borderline Cat 1 Hurricane...

The National Hurricane Center has this as its projected track, S means tropical storm...

AS you can see by tomorrow this thing targets the area. Here is projected radar at 1pm tomorrow...

As you can see soaking rains are moving through at this time. This will last till tomorrow night.

When it is all said and done 2-4 inches of rain will fall off the coast...

The highest wind impacts will be directly on the coast. I would expect gusts over 50 mph tomorrow as this whips through. Below is model projected max wind gusts. Usually this tends to be overdone...

Could this strengthen to become a Cat 1 hurricane. That is possible due to the nature of the very warm water off the coast and also a favorable placement of the jet stream. Below is the projected placement of the Jet Stream.  The storm will be approaching the rear right enterence region of the Jet. In english this means the storm is approaching a very favorable environment where the lifting of air will be aided by the jet steam. This means that the storm could strengthen more than expected...

Stay tuned. I will likely have an update at 8pm tonight before this storm approaches.