Posts will be more limited during the summer months.
I will focus on any interesting upcoming weather events such as severe weather outbreaks and hurricanes. I will usually comment on these weekly on Monday mornings.
I will also have holiday forecasts such as July 4th. Expect this to be released by Wednesday.
Once the fall hits the normal frequent posting will resume.
Monday, June 29, 2020
Wednesday, June 3, 2020
Wednesday: Thunderstorms Approach This Afternoon
Good morning. We had some impressive storms overnight and will have another round incoming later this afternoon as a storm complex approaches from the northwest...
This organized complex of storms (MCV) has been quite impressive and should be aided by some upper level instability over our region today as it approaches early this afternoon...
There can be severe cells embedded within this complex with high winds and maybe some isolated hail.
After this clears through, there may be another window later this afternoon for more storms as a cold front passes the region...
The models are indicating the focus can be more south but I think if there is enough daytime heat in between we can see more storms to the north too.
Looking at the upper levels, the image below sums up a lot we need to see...
The orange and grey areas indicate instability or in other words the potential for a parcel of air to rise if aided by lift. When air parcels rise they condense and form towering storm clouds. The red and blue wind barbs shows winds at 5000ft and 18000ft. There will be enough difference in wind direction and speed to cause some shear which means storms that develop can sustain themselves by keeping the updrafts and downdrafts separate. There should not be enough directional shear however to cause any tornados.
Taking a step even further back this whole storm setup is due to an upper level ridge that has moved towards our our area. As is often the case, storms form on the edge of these ridges...
So keep an eye on the skies starting early this afternoon there is some action looming.
This organized complex of storms (MCV) has been quite impressive and should be aided by some upper level instability over our region today as it approaches early this afternoon...
After this clears through, there may be another window later this afternoon for more storms as a cold front passes the region...
Looking at the upper levels, the image below sums up a lot we need to see...
The orange and grey areas indicate instability or in other words the potential for a parcel of air to rise if aided by lift. When air parcels rise they condense and form towering storm clouds. The red and blue wind barbs shows winds at 5000ft and 18000ft. There will be enough difference in wind direction and speed to cause some shear which means storms that develop can sustain themselves by keeping the updrafts and downdrafts separate. There should not be enough directional shear however to cause any tornados.
Taking a step even further back this whole storm setup is due to an upper level ridge that has moved towards our our area. As is often the case, storms form on the edge of these ridges...
So keep an eye on the skies starting early this afternoon there is some action looming.
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