Latest Climate Forecast System Winter Forecast (Not My Winter Forecast)

Image above is the latest run of the Climate Forecast System model. This model attempts to make long range large scale predictions of what the climate might look like up to 9 months out. This is its projected 500 mb height anomalies for Dec Jan Feb. Height anomalies basically show where areas of low and high pressure will be dominant high up in the atmosphere (14,000ft). Generally the higher pressure indicates warmer air (red), the lower pressure colder air (blue). If you recall back to many of my posts last winter, for an active northeast weather pattern we need blocking high pressure over Greenland and the arctic, along with high pressure areas over the western USA and Gulf of Alaska. This latest run shows exactly that for the winter months. 

I will provide a fair warning, this model tends to flip flop a lot considering it is projecting so far out in time. Thus, this is not what I will be basing my winter forecast on when I release it in early Sept. It will only be used as one variable. Figured id show its latest reading for some fun because that would be a winter lovers dream. As much as I personally enjoy the cold and snow I will try to take a neutral approach and see what factors might also result in a warmer than normal winter as well.

BTW..latest temperature forecast departure from normal for Aug..

If you remember a few weeks back I mentioned Aug would not be as brutal with the heat as July. Looks like that might end up being the case. 

image source: weatherbell.com/models

Official Winter Outlook Coming at the End of Aug/Early Sept....But a Few Ideas This Week

Monday Night: Here Comes the Relief in Temps, and A Long Term Look At Winter

The heat wave is over! Temps will normalize to normal summer conditions if not slightly below. Take a look at temps for next 10 days compared to normal..

These cooler temps are currently being brought in by a low pressure system that is bringing unsettled weather to our area...

Expect the unsettled weather to clear out by Wednesday. I would be surprised to see another heat wave effect our area this summer, I think the prolonged heat is over. Not to say it will not hit 90 again, I just dont see a long stretch of above 90 degree temps. 

Next winter is far off, but the long term climate models are printing out a very cold set up for the east coast. This next graphic is temperature departures from adverage for Jan-Feb-March...

We are 5-8 months out and chances are this model will change its forecast many times. However, if blocking does set up over Canada (high pressure) this outcome would be very likely. Right now there are conflicting signals whether or not that will happen.

Thanks for reading.

Brutal Heat All Week: But Relief End of July Into Aug

No one needs a forecast to know we are in another heat wave. Temps will be in mid to high 90's through Saturday. That's the bad news. The good news is cooler weather is on the way for end of July and I believe most of Aug.

Temps end of July (departure from adverage):

August Model Projected Temps (departure from normal):

But for now we gotta deal with this...

Thanks for checking in.

Next 30 Days Should Cool Down Compared to The Recent Heat

Here were the recent temps related to average for this time of year over the past 30 days..

Here will be the end of July into Aug current model projections for temps departures from normal..

As you can see, temps will normalize and it is probable that Aug will be seasonable if not below normal for temps. This will be due to a trough setting up in the east and ridge in the west. A good sign for people who are sick of the hot and humid weather.

Thanks for checking in.

Chantal Update

Chantal weakened  last night . It also has tracked more westward rather than more northwestward. This will likely cause it to hit southeast Fl and possibly now drift into the gulf as I mentioned i thought it could do last night. Here is current model spread..

Compared to yesterdays output...

In any event this storm will not intensify much past a weak tropical storm unless it take the most western path into the gulf. Right now not a major news making item or big cause for concern. I will keep you posted.

Tuesday Night.. A Look at Chantal

Tropical Storm Chantal has been the talk in the weather world lately. At first it looked likely it would weaken and not be much of a threat to the southeast coast, but now things have changed as the storm has maintained strength after hitting the Caribbean islands. Here is the current model spread.

The battle right now is whether or not this will hit southeast Georgia or head through Florida into the gulf. Some models such as the Canadian are very bullish on the Georgia hit...

This next graphic shows heat potential which favors the more south track compared to the Canadian..

source:weatherbell.com

Right now I am going with a rain packed tropical storm tracking from southeast Florida into the gulf. Lets see how this evolves over the next few days. More posts to come.

Video Up: 4th of July Weekend Forecast

4th Weekend Weather Video Up This Afternoon...

In short, it will be mostly humid and hot with limited rain...more details later

A Look at Yesterdays Tornado

I took two radar images of yesterday severe storm that went through Berkeley Heights and New Providence. On the first image I highlighted the "hook echo" in purple which usually indicates a possible tornado on the ground...

the echo is just north of 78 and to the east of 287. The next image shows the winds in the storm. Green represents inflow and red represents outflow. I circled the area where those two gradients became very tight, which is also indicative of a possible tornado. Notice its in the same spot as the hook on the above radar signature. 

The NWS is currently going to survey damage to confirm if it was an actual tornado, but from the looks of it there is a compelling case to be made. 

4th of July weekend weather looks to be nice at this point. I will take a closer look tomorrow. 

Big Line of Storms Came Through Earlier..Tornado Spotted

Strong line of heavy rain an storms swept through area this morning. Tornado was spotted near new providence nj. I am on road today but will give breakdown of the storm and what to expect in the week ahead late tonight.