Good morning. The ideas I laid out in my video last night will not come to fruition. Trends are going opposite of what I expected. The result is no big storm this week. At best we will see light snow. The image below shows jet stream trends. Notice near east coast how it flattens out. That prevents a large storm from amplifying.
Cold and dry, the theme of winter will continue.
All models are out to sea with Thursday's storm threat. However, in video below I breakdown why the models may be wrong and we could see a trend back to the west. Bottom line, I am not counting out the chance for a winter storm on Thursday. Stay tuned!
Good afternoon. We have a burst of snow that will move into the region tomorrow afternoon into evening before changing to rain for most and ice to the north. Below is my map on what I expect.
This initial burst of snow lasts a few hours then will change to freezing rain then plain rain for everyone outside of interior New England. By Sunday morning there should be no travel impacts for the NYC metro due to the surge in warm temperatures.
Then we turn our attention to a potential big storm around Thursday of next week. This has all the makings of a classic. Will it hold? Stay tuned.
Below is my final forecast for late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Core of the heaviest snow will stay in the southern zones. After this storm departs we will then have another system to deal with Wednesday night. Expect snow to ice to rain with that system. More on that tomorrow.
Good afternoon. A very active pattern is ahead.
Quite the ice storm last night for spots. Totals where pretty erratic across NNJ and were highest as you got towards NE NJ. I saw some reports around 4". In Randolph we had 2.4" including sleet. Overall the forecast map did ok. I missed some of the higher totals in NE NJ and Long island.
Our next weather system moves in on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The focus should be more south this time. Below is my initial idea. I will update this tomorrow as I start to hone in on things.
We then have another system on Thursday that will be ice to rain for some spots and all snow to the far north in New England. More to come on that.
Below is my final forecast. Storm moves in just after dusk tonight and is over by tomorrow morning. Snow to heavy sleet for some with all snow to the north. Rain to far south after an initial period of ice.
Below is my initial forecast for Sat night's winter storm. I will have a final forecast out tomorrow morning. Expect a front end burst of snow late tomorrow afternoon/evening with a changeover to sleet south of New England.
We then have more winter weather next week between Tuesday and Thursday I will be discussing.
