Wed Night Video Discussion: Breaking Down the Storm

 

Storm Update: My Initial Forecast

 Good afternoon. Below is my initial estimate of storm impacts this weekend. Timing is very early Sunday into early Monday morning...

Expect an initial thump of snow for all areas then a transition to some sleet to the south. The exact timing and location of this is still TBD, so I am making an estimate in my map above on how I think this ends up playing out. I will adjust this daily if its necessary (hopefully not).

The model projection below is how i think this play out...

Notice the initial snow (blue), then a transition to some ice (orange and pink). The placement on this model makes sense to me.

The cold out out ahead is very strong, so the models that are warmer and further north I think are wrong. Time will tell if I am am correct.

Stay tuned. More to come including video breakdowns. 

Storm Update 3pm. Will provide more details and hone in on timing and track

Major Storm Potential Sat Afternoon through Sunday: My initial estimate

 Good evening. The talk of the town is the major winter storm potential this weekend. Below is my initial estimate of how I think this storm evolves, and who is impacted. Keep in mind this can change drastically but it wouldn't be a forecast if I just shared different model runs every day. There still is a chance this can miss but that window is narrowing. The timing looks to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday as of now. 

Stay tuned, I will provide a lot more detail as the days go on including videos. 

Major Storm Potential Next Weekend. Stay tuned for Commentary

Final Forecast for Tomorrow's Storm

 ere is my final forecast below. Snow works in way in by mid morning for most spots and lingers throughout the day. Up in Eastern New England it goes into the night. For NJ initially i don't see high impacts outside the NW areas of the state due to marginal temps. However by the afternoon expect a few inches possible to pile up as cold air rushes in.

Snow Moving in. More Snow Tomorrow, Forecast Below

 Good morning. Snow is now moving in from the west. Expect 1-3" in many areas by this afternoon.

We then turn our attention to tomorrow. I will have a video out tonight.

Here is my forecast:

I have been anticipating western trends in models with this. We are starting to now see them..

On my X handle @weatherwilly I go into some of the reasons why.

Regardless, expect up to a moderate snowstorm tomorrow for areas to the east. The local weather outlets will start picking up on this by the afternoon.

Very cold air follows next week.