Monday, May 1, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Warm today, Cooler Temps to Follow

Good morning, it ended up being a nice weekend overall. As we head into this week things will start off warm today with temperatures in the high 70's to low 80s. It will be mostly cloudy as a cold front will be approaching later tonight bringing with it showers and thunderstorms...

This will all clear out by Tuesday morning but things will be on the cooler side through the rest of the week as this air mass is quite chilly for this time of year. Expect highs on Tuesday to be in the low to mid 70's but temperatures will then move down to the low 60's for highs for the rest of the week.

You can see the cold airmass below...

We then run into more turbulence from Thursday night into Friday as a storm system will move into the area and can pack quite the punch with rain...

Friday looks to be a miserable day with periods of rain. This should try to clear out by Saturday however and spare the weekend with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the 60's. We will have to watch this closely as there is a chance it can linger into Saturday.

I will have a write up later this week breaking it down.


  1. Hey Willy,

    Looks like we finally have the set up you've been waiting for all winter ! Negative NAO and AO, big Greenland high block, positive PNA, a really up-and-down jet stream from a big ridge in the west and a big cold trough in the east. Even the MJO out in the Pacific is doing its bit part to support the pattern.

    And yes . . . too bad it's May! I wonder where this pattern suddenly came from, after hiding all winter?!? Is it an Arctic or Pacific-driven thing? The QBO winds still seem to be coming from the west. The stratosphere polar winds have gone easterly, although the polar strat temps are rising seasonably, no anomalies. The Pacific ENSO seems neutral right now. Hmmm, wonder if there's been some kind of pattern shift in solar wind and radiation. Too bad there isn't an easy way to track that, but we probably still aren't sure exactly what to track. I as wondering what your theory on this is.

    For now, no 12+ inch storms, just some unseasonably dreary weather in May. The GFS and Canadian do have some light snowfall for much of NY State and Vermont early next week, though. A few flakes might even hit territorial NJ up near High Point. Most interesting! Jim G

    1. Pretty funny isn't it? We are in a perfect winter pattern just 2 months too late! Its hard to nail down where this is coming from. As you mentioned, maybe its a factor that we are not noticing driving the overall pattern. All this shows you that we really do not have a handle on long range forecasting at this time. The earth is always changing so the data we look at going back 60 years might loose it significance over the next 60 years. Sure we know ENSO, QBO, Snow Cover ETC plays a role, but there are def factors out that that still need to be discovered. From there it may be even hard to understand how they all link together. For now we just observe and enjoy the curve balls mother nature throws at us.

      In terms of snow, looks like some flakes do fly in mountain areas this week. Ive seen this happen before in May but its very uncommon.