Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Wednesday Morning: Late Night Means No Post, Long Range Forecast Challenged

Considering the election ran till 3 am last night I will not have a post today. I will tell you guys however that there are major challenges that have surfaced in the long range forecast. When I say long range I mean from week 2 and beyond. The models have really been all over the place and we have many conflicting signals. I am trying to crunch the new data and determine how warm or cold things will be from say the 25th of November through the 1st two weeks of Dec. I would be lying if I said the pattern was evolving as expected given this new data. I am not ready however to make a final conclusion until I have the time to study all the factors.

I will have my thoughts out either late tonight or tomorrow morning. Stay tuned. 


2 comments:

  1. Willy, I went to sleep at midnight, the map looked pretty obvious (although Pennsylvania was a surprise!). As to the weather maps and patterns, which are anything but obvious -- my little unprofessional look-over this AM indicates possible negative PNA by end of month, NAO staying non-committal, EPO pretty much close to neutral. A look at the SSTA chart indicates that the GOA is cooling, so that might not be driving a curvy northern jet anytime soon; things might stay on the progressive side. MJO still on track for a week in the western zones, supporting troughs in the east. But it isn't staying there too long, will move back into the neutral zone later this month. AO may be negative again in late Nov / early Dec, and those upper level winds over the Arctic may go easterly, so the polar vortex may be weakening and even splitting again around early December? Current strat temps over the Arctic are still climbing a bit, not a big spike, but might help put some more pressure on the vortex. So not surprised to hear that we have some short cold shots coming up over the next 7 to 10 days (even though that initial vortex split in October seems to be over for now at 10mb). But another funny thing -- the surface Arctic temps are way up, presumably from the low ice levels; possibly more than +10 C anomaly right now. Which makes me wonder . . . ok, we are going to get more polar air shots -- but what if that polar air isn't as cold as it should be? 10C could be the difference between a 25F day and a 40F day. But maybe the upper tropo air is still cold (the polar 850mb temp anomaly looks generally +, although maybe around 2C). Just a SWAG after not enough sleep. Jim G

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    1. Good points on the GOA, cold pool and up in the air NAO. This is what we will have to watch closely over next few weeks as it will tell the tale on if this season evolves as expected. Some signs up upward heat flux on vortex evolving so lets see how that turns out as well. So yes the shots of air from pole right now will be chilly but not as intense considering those record temps. However, if we can build more snow cover up over Canada that will help mitigate that. Just cut a video let me know your thoughts.

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