Monday, November 7, 2016

Monday Morning Pattern Update: Colder 2nd Half on Track

Good morning. I am pressed for time this morning so I will give a quick update on the evolution of our pattern. I will have another video out as well early this week to explain in greater detail. Here is the bottom line:

  • Pattern change to colder weather on track for 2nd half of November
  • We feel the first signs of this over the weekend where temperatures will plummet to around 10 degrees below normal Saturday and Sunday
    • This means highs in the low 40s for many spots and 30's for New England
    • Some areas in the interior will see snow showers as the front moves through Saturday
  • Following this weekend, the pattern will continue to evolve and average out to cooler than normal in the east with varying shots of colder than normal air

So lets take a look. Here are 5000 ft temperature departures for this upcomming weekend..

Notice the area of below normal over the north east. I will go into more detail on how this evolves tomorrow.

Areas in the interior see show showers as this air mass approaches...

Maybe areas closer to coast squeeze out a few, we will have to see.

Check out projected temperatures on Saturday afternoon...

Following the passage of this air mass, the pattern then amps up again towards the end of the ten day period with a ridge out west and toughing in the east..

The image above is valid the 17th. Notice the big negative or colder air pocket in the east. This can end up being a storm that effects the eastern 1/3. No, I do not expect a widespread snowstorm. Like ive mentioned however, up in New England ski areas, they could see the white stuff. 

So we have a lot of changes on the way. Like anything else it will not be a direct transition. We will have cold days like this weekend followed by moderating temps followed by more cold days as we close out this month. When it is all said and done I like what I see as this pattern evolves into the start of meteorological winter on December 1st. 

More on all of this tomororw

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