Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Wednesday Morning Hurricane Update: Escape Route Open for Northeast, FL on High Alert

Good morning everyone. More major changes over the last 24 hours. It now is becoming clear that the original out to sea scenerio I was favoring Monday is back to gaining ground. At this time yesterday, we saw a big trend towards a storm that effected the whole east coast- now its the opposite. Do not be surprised. As I have mentioned, anytime you are over 100 hours out on weather models major shifts can and will occur. We will keep this in mind when we track winter storms.

So here is updated summary:

  • Hurricane Matthew now stationed just north of Hatti is still a very powerful storm
  • Over the past 24 hrs models have shifted to Matthew impacting Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina then curving out to sea
  • I now assign a 70% probability to this storm going to sea and 30% to it coming north. 
  • When it is all said and done, the eastern shores of Florida and Georgia can expect high winds and heavy rain Friday and Saturday
    • Worst impacts will be in Florida. 
Here is a current satalite view of Matthew..

Here is the updated spread of models. Notice the major shift out to sea from yesterday..

The National Hurricane Center also has adjusted..

We now need to turn our focus to Florida as this storm will come very close to making direct landfall..

Image below shows the storm just off the coast of FL Friday. Notice the strong wind field. We need to track very closely this hurrucane force wind field as it gets close to the coast line. Although it appears this can scrape on by, it is way to close for comfort and still will have big impacts Friday and Saturday.

The storm will then work its way off the coast of Georgia Saturday. Heavy rain, wind and high surf can be expected. Again we still need to nail down the exact details..

When it is all said and done, here is an idea of total rainfall...

Notice the sharp cutoff. We will see how close this gets.

So why the big shift from yesterday? I explain in image below..

That trough approaching from the mid west we have been talking about is much weaker on updated models. Because of this, the storm does not interact with it and instead gets squashed by high pressure to the north.

Just another example of how models can change drastically days away from an event.

That's all for now. Thanks for reading.


  1. Hi Willy, at the moment it looks like weather model anarchy to me! GFS has Matthew doing the loop-de-loop that the Euro had earlier predicted, blocked by Nicole's east-side flow and some ridging to the west, with no more trough to the north. It keeps Matthew between Florida and the Bahamas all week. The overnite Euro still has a loop, but Matthew eventually breaks out and finds a northward route, and gets within 200 miles of the NJ shore and LI -- but on the FOLLOWING SATURDAY (15th)! And it hints of a new inland trough by then that could hypothetically get involved. But the overnite Canadian seems to maintain something like what the GFS and Euro were agreeing to just a day ago, a progressive track up the coast thru the Outer Banks then kicking out to sea this Sunday, eventually phasing into a trough up in the Maritimes. Passing 100-200 miles east of NJ, maybe some clouds, showers and rough surf. The hurricane models are coming up with various admixtures of these scenarios.

    What the heck?

    Side thought, since the winter forecasts are now coming out, looking forward to yours on the 17th -- if that trough from the north turns out flat and mostly a dud, and Matthew thus never gets very far up the coast (or tracks N/E out to sea after Nicole gets out of the way) -- is that a harbinger for the upcoming winter season? I.e., Nor'easters that never get to the north-east, due to weak troughs and progressive west-east flows? If you look at water temp anomalies, you see that son-of-the-blob coming up into the G of Alaska, which should help to generate troughs. But also notice that the Great Lakes look like they're on fire! I wonder how much effect the big lakes could have on the northern jet stream. We shall see, I suppose.

    Still scratching my head about the current situation. Jim G

    1. Ooopps, senior moment . . . I mean "blocked by Nicole's WEST side flow" . . . gotta get some coffee. Jim G

    2. We can def now rule out the track up the coast. This thing now is going to barrel towards Florida and unfortunately will have major impacts. In terms of this thing hanging around through next week, that is very possible but I question if it can maintain any strength. It is likely sheer and dry air weaken this system and we end up with a low pressure center that throws some rain back into Florida.

      I was actually thinking the same thing about this trough and winter but I wouldn't look too far into it at this time. If you are looking at long range ensembles they show what could be a pretty decent cold shot towards mid month as the Aleutian low intensifies and we get a lot of riding along the west coast. I got all my winter analogs lined up but I am awaiting all the Oct model runs to compare and contrast with my analogs.

      Thanks for reading

    3. OK, I do see a strong northern trough coming into the northeast on some of the ensemble runs, starting on OCT 19. The classic pattern, Alaska low, Pacific coastal ridge, eastern trough. Just in time for your winter forecast! Wouldn't that be good timing!

      As to Matthew, thoughts and prayers for the Florida coast -- that's gonna be a bad one. Then the big loop and the storm falls apart somewhere. But more model divergence as to where that happens -- GFS sez way down in the Gulf of Mexico, Euro lets it get back out into the Atlantic and then fade away off the Outer Banks, and the Canadian gives it a second chance, getting back to a 980 low a few hundred miles out to our east. But then again, the CMC would not be the go-to model regarding wind sheer effects on tropical storms. Might still be some interaction with the remains of Nicole? Jim G

  2. I think we can all be very thankful if this thing goes out to sea.