Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Tuesday Morning: Cold Shot in the Long Range?


Good morning, quick post today on the long range. For the last few cycles, the weather models have been indicating the possibility of a decent cold shot towards the end of next week. Now anytime we are over a week away, it is very hard to know the exact details. We can however look for hints and imagine how models may trend towards an idea.

Lets take the European ensemble for example. Here is its projection for late next week..

This is an average of many different ensemble member outputs but it shows you what the model is hinting at. For one, we have a deepening trough or area of low pressure south of the Aleutian islands. The normal response to this is a ridge of high pressure in the west and a trough in the east. This trough means cold air would be able to funnel south into the central and eventually eastern states at the end of the 14 day period.

The GFS ensemble is hinting at the same thing..

We will see how this turns out. 

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