Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Wednesday Weather Outlook: Turning Up The Heat (Again)

Good morning. Short post today as there really isn't too much to talk about. The main story over next few days will be the heat returning. Yes it might be September, but that does not mean temperatures can not get into the 90's and they will in many places.

Before we get to that, check out our old friend Hermine...

It might be in a weakened state, but this thing actually still has a circulation center (no more impacts). What a forecasting nightmare that was!

Moving on to the heat, the heat begins to build today and lasts through Saturday. Expect temperatures in the low 90s for many spots. Below you can see the warm air rising up from the south as indicated by the red colors..

There is some relief in sight however. Notice that blue area diving into the Midwest. That will swing through our area on Sunday breaking the heatwave. 

Looking at the long range, it does not appear we will see any sustained cool downs over next few weeks. This means the feel of summer will not go away yet. I wouldn't be surprised to even see a few more days in the 90s before its all said and done.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Willy,

    First -- some well-deserved kudos on your coverage of Hermine. I may question some of your long-term weather outlooks at times (looking forward to your Oct 15 winter thoughts), but when a big weather event is about to happen, nobody does it better than you in keeping northern NJ posted. Not that I don't check out other WX sources, it's good to get as many perspectives as possible. But only a handful keep us updated "in real time" on what's going on overhead and on the ground, when things get rough. You did another great job with Hermine. For a little while there, she was bringing back some Sandy memories.

    Hermine was an interesting one, a "hybrid" storm. I think that Joe C over at News 12 had a good point while he was complaining about how the models were all over the place and kept on changing so quickly once Hermine got past Florida. These post-tropical hybrids are pretty unique, each one is different, and since most of the models don't have much experience with these hybrids, their "skill" really drops off pretty quickly. You think that you've seen it all with weather, and then something new is out there spinning your way.

    Lots of interesting dynamics took place between Hermine's tropical set-up in the lower atmosphere and the upper atmosphere, along with the ocean. Lucky for us that the weekend ridge over us kept her far enough to the east, but not so far as to continue feeding off the Gulf Stream warmth. Looks like she actually got pretty close to NJ before finally falling apart, looks like she was almost going due west late yesterday (bring some Sandy memories for a moment). I guess that she never got enough low pressure over her to keep her spinning.

    Despite the minor scare, I was actually a little sad to see her off the tropical storm maps this morning. An interesting one for sure. Let's see if any of the other African waves turn into something interesting, we still have 5 or 6 weeks to go. Although I gather that you are already watching the snows in Siberia and the SST anomalies in the western and northern Pacific. Last I heard, that La Nina trend wasn't doing much, the Pacific might be mostly neutral this fall and winter; although your Gulf of Alaska blob may be back, along with the polar jet diving down into our area. And maybe a warmer North Atlantic means a weaker or even negative NAO with more blocking. That obviously sounds good to you. But NOAA's DJF temp and precip forecasts right now are neutral for our area. We shall see!

    Once again, kudos on the Hermine coverage. You're still the go-to guy for big weather events here in NJ. Jim G