Monday, September 26, 2016

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Seasonal Change Underway, Effects Seen This Week

Good morning everyone. Now that we are in fall, the jet stream will start to slowly strengthen as we get closer to the winter months. Since the northern hemisphere gets less sun energy you get more temperature contrasts with the southern latitudes.This causes stronger jet streams and naturally high variability in our weather.

This week we start to see a little of that. Overall, temperatures will be in the 70's but we will have unsettled weather.

Starting with tonight, a cold front moves through the area. This causes some showers early tomorrow morning..

In the wake of this front we get cool dry weather but things will start to get unsettled again towards the end of the week.  The front that moves in tonight stalls offshore and an approaching upper level low move into the area and closes off. This means unsettled weather will get trapped in the vicinity of our area at the end of this week. Expect rounds of showers Thursday and Friday...

If we move up in the atmosphere you can see how the low is trapped around high pressure...

This just meanders then should weaken by the weekend to pave the way for nice weather Saturday and Sunday.

Outside of this variably in weather this week, we need to keep our eye on the tropics again over the next 7 days. We have a disturbance in the Atlantic that many models are developing into a hurricane. The track remains unknown, but there is a strong consensus that brings this towards land..

This risk here is that this storm gets trapped under high pressure in the northern Atlantic next week. This high pressure would steer it into land. The GFS ensemble shows this set up..

We will keep an eye on this. Thanks for reading. 

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