Friday, September 30, 2016

Friday Update: Stalled Low Lingers, Hurricane Matthew Curves

Good morning. This pesky stalled upper level low stays stationary over our area through tomorrow. This causes rounds of showers today and a few showers tomorrow. You can see how it is completely closed up and just floating over the region..

The rain will be on and off today and by tomorrow we see more of the same..


By Sunday this system should finally start to pull away but we can not rule out a few showers. Overall not the best weekend.

We now turn our attention to Hurricane Matthew..


This impressive storm should continue to strengthen over the next few days. We are starting to get a little more clarity on the track. At this time we most likely have 2 scenarios..


  • Hurricane scrapes up the coast
  • Hurricane curves out to sea
Right now I am leaning towards this storm curving out to sea. This will have to be closely watched. Current models show the spread of outcomes..


As you can see a landfall can happen with this system for the USA but I am not leaning that way yet. Right now rough surf for the east coast seems to be the most likely outcome. 

I will continue to monitor and post updates as more model data comes in. Remember we still are tracking this long range so a lot can change. 

3 comments:

  1. Hi Willy, I'm tuning in again. Matthew is damn scary -- it's now 14 hours from your post, and the thing is Cat 5, 160 mph winds, "THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007" per NHC. I'm not usually a big fan of northern troughs coming in from the west, but I hope the approaching trough is strong enough to steer that baby out to sea. Could be some real drama in the air as the week progresses. I'll be tuned in, along with many many others no doubt. Jim G

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    1. It is a monster alright. I think this does spare us tho, time will tell. Those trough interactions are interesting. They can capture or kick out a storm. It usually comes down to strength of shortwave and the blocking ahead of it. In this case i think the gfs is overdoing it. Well see, I'm sure this has a few more tricks up its sleeve.

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  2. Hey Willy, could you refresh my memory, I'm getting old -- was Sandy phased into a strong trough? Was that what made it turn n/w then almost due west into southern NJ? The trough on todays 6z GFS eventually vacuums Matty in, but up around Maine and the Maritimes. As you say, Euro and most of the others don't see much of a trough, and big Matt just wanders around out in the ocean. But still kind of weird even on those model scenarios, with this big storm a few hundred miles east of Georgia, right around this time next week, still pretty darn strong . . . just a big fish storm, or does some new upper air set-up a week from now start some new east coast drama? That's what keeps it interesting! Thanks, Jim G

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