Friday, September 30, 2016

Friday Update: Stalled Low Lingers, Hurricane Matthew Curves

Good morning. This pesky stalled upper level low stays stationary over our area through tomorrow. This causes rounds of showers today and a few showers tomorrow. You can see how it is completely closed up and just floating over the region..

The rain will be on and off today and by tomorrow we see more of the same..

By Sunday this system should finally start to pull away but we can not rule out a few showers. Overall not the best weekend.

We now turn our attention to Hurricane Matthew..

This impressive storm should continue to strengthen over the next few days. We are starting to get a little more clarity on the track. At this time we most likely have 2 scenarios..

  • Hurricane scrapes up the coast
  • Hurricane curves out to sea
Right now I am leaning towards this storm curving out to sea. This will have to be closely watched. Current models show the spread of outcomes..

As you can see a landfall can happen with this system for the USA but I am not leaning that way yet. Right now rough surf for the east coast seems to be the most likely outcome. 

I will continue to monitor and post updates as more model data comes in. Remember we still are tracking this long range so a lot can change. 

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Tropical Storm Matthew Likely to Form..Need to Watch Closely

Good morning. Quick update today on the tropics. As I mentioned Monday, we need to keep our eye on a disturbance developing in the Atlantic. All models are indicating this does become a tropical storm (Matthew)  and possibly even a strong hurricane by next week. I am going to start to follow this closely but for today here is what the model spreads show.

Hurricane Models:

GFS Ensembles:

Canadian Ensembles:

You can see there are really 3 possibilities here:
  • Storm moves into the eastern Gulf
  • Storm moves up the East Coast
  • Storm curves out to sea

All are equally possible at this time. I will start to keep an eye on factors that will influence the track and keep everyone updated.

Stay tuned!

Monday, September 26, 2016

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Seasonal Change Underway, Effects Seen This Week

Good morning everyone. Now that we are in fall, the jet stream will start to slowly strengthen as we get closer to the winter months. Since the northern hemisphere gets less sun energy you get more temperature contrasts with the southern latitudes.This causes stronger jet streams and naturally high variability in our weather.

This week we start to see a little of that. Overall, temperatures will be in the 70's but we will have unsettled weather.

Starting with tonight, a cold front moves through the area. This causes some showers early tomorrow morning..

In the wake of this front we get cool dry weather but things will start to get unsettled again towards the end of the week.  The front that moves in tonight stalls offshore and an approaching upper level low move into the area and closes off. This means unsettled weather will get trapped in the vicinity of our area at the end of this week. Expect rounds of showers Thursday and Friday...

If we move up in the atmosphere you can see how the low is trapped around high pressure...

This just meanders then should weaken by the weekend to pave the way for nice weather Saturday and Sunday.

Outside of this variably in weather this week, we need to keep our eye on the tropics again over the next 7 days. We have a disturbance in the Atlantic that many models are developing into a hurricane. The track remains unknown, but there is a strong consensus that brings this towards land..

This risk here is that this storm gets trapped under high pressure in the northern Atlantic next week. This high pressure would steer it into land. The GFS ensemble shows this set up..

We will keep an eye on this. Thanks for reading. 

Friday, September 23, 2016

Weekend Weather Outlook: First Fall Cold Shot on Tap

Welcome to autumn! This is always a fun time of year due to the changing state of the atmosphere and when we begin to speculate on what winter will have in store. As I have mentioned my Winter Outlook will be out mid October.

Now lets get to the weekend. Today will be an unseasonably warm day with humid conditions and temperature in the high 80s! However, relief comes quickly tonight as a cold front crosses our area. 

Winds will shift and blow in from the north. This will bring dry cool air for Saturday and Sunday. Expect high temperatures in the low 70's on Saturday and the mid to high 60's on Sunday. Low temperautres at night will range from the mid 40's inland to low 50's near the city.

The image below shows the inflow of cold air Sunday morning..

Check out these lows Sunday morning, especially up in New England..

Like I said, a nice healthy shot of fall air.  

As we head through next week and into early October I still do not see any of this cool air sustaining itself. Things will gradually warm up next week and models have been indicating a warmer than normal start to October. You can see the pattern that would cause that below. Trough in the west and ridge of high pressure in the east..

Lets hope that doesn't end up being the winter pattern!

Monday, September 19, 2016

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Rain Ends This Morning, Calm for Rest of the Week

Good morning everyone. The steady rain came in last night and will end this morning. You can see the simulated radar projecting the back end moves through a few hours from now..

Once this front clears the weather becomes calm for the rest of the week with high pressure in control. Expect high temperatures in the low 80's with mostly sunny skies. The air is beginning to feel like fall and I am sure all of us are welcoming it. 

As we head into the next two weeks expect mostly seasonable conditions. I do not see any major autumn cold shots on the horizon at this time. 

The data has begun to get compiled for my winter outlook. As usual I will take a look at a lot of different factors in our current atmosphere, compare them to historical years where we saw similar conditions, and look for verification in the long range models. I will be honest, I really am not sure the direction I am going to go for the Mid-Atlantic at this time (more confident in New England and Mid West). I need to wait a few more weeks. Expect the outlook around mid October. 

Friday, September 16, 2016

Weekend Update: Heating Up Tomorrow, Rain Sunday

Quick weekend update. Tomorrow will feature temperatures in the upper 70's with higher humidity values ahead of an approaching cold front that will effect the area on Sunday. 

Mostly sunny skies on Saturday give way to clouds and rounds of showers on Sunday as the front approaches..

Expect on and off rain all day. Front clears out by Monday morning giving way to partly sunny skies and temperas back in the high 70's with lower humidity. 

Winter is coming and so is the outlook. I am begging to compile data and will have out out by mid October!

More on Monday, enjoy the weekend. 

Monday, September 12, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Waves of Fall

Good morning. We have a nice fall chill in the air this morning and it is very welcoming given the heat we have had in recent days. Temperatures around the state currently sit in 50's. So will this last? Yes and no. Each week that goes by it will be harder and harder to have sustained hot and humid temperatures. However, we are going to keep seeing a back and forth between warmer than normal and seasonal conditions over the next few weeks.

For this week, temperatures will hover in the low 80's today and Tuesday and make their way into the mid to upper 80's Wednesday. Releif then comes back in again Thursday as another cold front sweeps through..

The winds will shift and flow in from the northwest. This will bring temps back down into the low to mid 70's on Thursday and Friday! Highs at night will be in the low 50's for many spots. There will also not be much rain expected just maybe a few showers as this front passes Wednesday night.

For the weekend, things look to stay tame with temperatures in the high 70's maybe touching 80. We might see some scattered thunderstorm activity on Sunday as another front approaches. 

That iis all for now. On another note, I have started to work on  my Winter Outlook 2017. That will be released in middle October. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Wednesday Weather Outlook: Turning Up The Heat (Again)

Good morning. Short post today as there really isn't too much to talk about. The main story over next few days will be the heat returning. Yes it might be September, but that does not mean temperatures can not get into the 90's and they will in many places.

Before we get to that, check out our old friend Hermine...

It might be in a weakened state, but this thing actually still has a circulation center (no more impacts). What a forecasting nightmare that was!

Moving on to the heat, the heat begins to build today and lasts through Saturday. Expect temperatures in the low 90s for many spots. Below you can see the warm air rising up from the south as indicated by the red colors..

There is some relief in sight however. Notice that blue area diving into the Midwest. That will swing through our area on Sunday breaking the heatwave. 

Looking at the long range, it does not appear we will see any sustained cool downs over next few weeks. This means the feel of summer will not go away yet. I wouldn't be surprised to even see a few more days in the 90s before its all said and done.

Monday, September 5, 2016

Labor Day Storm Update: Hermine Still Throwing a Few Curves

Quick video below gives latest update on Hermine. Storm will not have impacts as originally thought but has trended back west enough on the models last 24hrs to have some impacts on beaches. Main concern is beach erosion from the rough surf.

Sunday, September 4, 2016

Sunday Morning Update: Storm Is Not On Track!

Good morning. Big news this morning and that news is that this storm will stay more east than previously projected by every major weather model. What does this mean? Well for one it means I was WRONG and two it means that the only impacts that will be witnessed is high surf at the beaches. There will still be beach erosion and some gusty winds but the rain and real heavy rain are for the fishes. This is great news for the Jersey shore and it also  shows you how even in the year 2016 our handle on mother nature is not ultimate. Regardless of how many supercomputers or complex algorithms we may have, the weather will always be a massively complex set of moving variables that are hard to tame.

I will say, this storm still may have a few tricks up its sleeve so I will keep a close on on this today and see if by tonight we can put the final nail in the coffin. Expect a quick note tonight.

The goal of this blog always was to provide a perspective and also take a stance on making a forecast. Its always a fine line between jumping the gun too early and waiting too late where I am just now casting. In this case, the evidence and observations we had to work with overwhelmingly where enough to cause concern. The curve ball came last night with all major guidance shifting east. 

Regardless, this all doesn't change the fact I was incorrect in my assessment of this situation. If I had to do it over again though, I do not know if I would have waited and held back. We saw how impressive Hermine was and the real potential this had to cause havoc along the immediate coast line. The weather outlets picked up on this big time yesterday.  Maybe next time I will go into more depth on what would have to change for the storm to not unfold.

So we move on now to evaluate and see what the rest of hurricane season has in store. Signs are that it will stay active. We also will start looking towards Winter 2017! I am releasing my outlook around October 15th this year. I hope everyone is looking forward to that. Lets hope that if we do see any big storms that I am able to guide everyone in the right direction and make more of an accurate assessment in advance!

Oh wait I forgot, the updated forecast map...

Joking aside, there still will be very high surf, some gusty winds and the beaches still will see some erosion. 


So what went wrong?

Despite the fact we had powerful high pressure in place to block this storm, the dynamics behind an approaching low pressure system at 18k feet in the atmosphere did not unfold. What I mean by this is that the upper level low was not as strong as modeled and as a result did not have the impact of capturing this storm in time and pulling it back to the coast. Instead, it just will slow the storm down a little but not have the power to turn it back east enough.

The result will be a storm that sit more offshore for a few days...

Still very close for comfort. Those are tropical storm force winds just offshore but it does look like this will not back east enough to cause the disaster scenario. Just very high surf and battered beaches. 

Thats all for now, thanks for following this week guys.

Saturday, September 3, 2016

Saturday Night Storm Update: Everything is On Track

Good evening. I cut a 2 min video below that discusses my updated thoughts on tropical storm Hermine. This storm really cranks up tomorrow afternoon into Monday morning as it makes a turn back into the coast. There are still modeling differences with how close it will back in. Obviously how close the storm actually gets will have a big impact on how bad the conditions are. As observations come in through tomorrow morning I will have a good idea if my forecast stays on track.

Remember this storm is a primary concern for the immediate coast line. Inland, impacts will not be as bad.

Enjoy the video..

Saturday Morning Storm Update: No Major Changes

Good morning. My thoughts are still consistent from my update last night. A few points I want to reinforce:

  • The coastal areas are the biggest concern with this tropical storm.
    • The long duration of the rain, wind and rough surf will have impacts on beaches.

  • Do not be surprised to see very little rain if you live an hour plus inland from the coast. 
    • The rain shield will not make it too far inland with this system (see updated map).

  • Time of largest impacts for coastal areas will be from Sunday into Monday morning
    • Worst conditions later in the day Sunday through the night
    • Storm will linger offshore into Tuesday with conditions gradually improving for the beaches

Here is my updated map. I tweaked the rain projections to show what I think the cutoff will be in heavy rain (dark green)...

Updated map from National Hurricane Center...

Updated model projection (wind gusts Sunday night)...

Current position of Hermine...

Thats all for now. More forecast details below in my post last night. I will have another update live later tonight ~7pm.

Friday, September 2, 2016

Friday Night Storm Discussion: The Coast Needs to Prepare


Tropical Storm Hermine is not backing down. Latest model guidance projects the track I feared which is a stalled storm just off the Delaware coast. This is a very unique situation and will have big impacts on every coastal area from Delaware up to Long Island. The time to prepare is now if you live near the ocean. There is still a chance this trends more east, which would limit wind impacts, but that is not my forecast at this time. 

I have maintained my forecast map from yesterday. The red zone is my primary concern...

The Updated Summary:

  • Major tropical storm effects the whole Mid Atlantic coast Saturday night through Monday
    • Storm arrives Saturday night and hits its peak intensity Sunday afternoon and evening.
    • Storm should start to pull away by Monday morning
  • Coastal areas including the whole Jersey Shore will see the brunt of the impacts 
    • Wind gusts up to 65mph with sustained winds of 40mph+ by the time we get to Sunday afternoon and night at the beach areas.
    • Extremely dangerous surf coupled with heavy rains will batter beaches and cause flooding issues
  • Further inland will experience a windy rain from Sunday into Monday morning.
    • Sharp cutoff in the rain expected along the Interstate 95 corridor
    • Expect 3-4" of rain near the coast with 1-2 inches inland to I-95
  • This will be a historical event due to the long duration and impacts it will cause along the coast

Updated video discussion is below:


Friday Morning Storm Update: Updated Forecast Map Will Be Released Tonight

Good morning everybody. As more data keeps coming in I will be updating my preliminary thoughts from yesterday. I am going to wait till early this evening to make the first tweak to my map. Overall, I really do not think much will change aside from really trying to nail now how far inland that rain shield gets (folks more than 50 miles inland might see no rain at all).  The primary concern with this forecast is how bad things really will get for the coastal areas. I will show you below the difference 30 miles in track makes for wind impacts on the coast.

Here is a summary of my latest thoughts:

  • Hurricane Hermine (seen below) is on track to work its way just off the Mid Atlantic coast this weekend
    • Impacts would be felt mostly Sunday and into Monday

  • The million dollar question is how close does this storm really get to the shoreline
  • As stands, my concerns mainly lie with the beach areas as I expect high winds, rough surf, and heavy rain
  • Current modeling is way too close for comfort
    • Some models keep this far enough offshore to not cause any major threat but others still have heavy rain and winds at the coast gusting above tropical storm force
    • I do not want to jump around until I see everything come in today
This was initial forecast..

Updated National Hurricane Center Map..

Here is an example of how close of a call this is in terms of impacts. The latest gfs model is projecting these wind gusts for Sunday...

Those are gusts above 55mph on the coast. You can see how a difference in 30 miles east or west on this track makes a huge difference with this storm. That is why it is important not to jump back and forth on every model run. 

In terms of rainfall, I like the average of what the GFS is showing...

Notice the sharp cutoff in rainfall. That will occur, it is just a matter of if it is a little more east or west than what you see above.

Remember, nothing is set in stone yet with this system. Hermine definitely has a few more tricks up her sleeve for our area- for better or for worse...

Updated forecast map up later today. Thanks for reading. 

Thursday, September 1, 2016

6pm Update: *Major Tropical Storm To Affect Mid Atlantic This Weekend*

Thanks for checking in to my evening update. Here is a summary of my latest thoughts on Hurricane Hermine's impacts to our region later this week. 

  • Major tropical system effects the entire Mid-Atlantic region on late Saturday through Sunday
    • Hurricane Hermine, which is about to make landfall in Flordia, will work its way up the coast as a hybrid tropical cyclone and stall just off the Mid-Atlantic Sunday and Monday
    • *Not a final forecast, exact details on the track still need to be worked out including if this trends out to sea*
  • The biggest threat with this system is in the immediate coastal areas
    • Expect flooding, beach erosion, and winds gusting up to 65+ mph at the beaches
    • The main impact zone looks to be somewhere between Delmarva and the Jersey Shore.
  • For inland areas expect heavy rain and wind from late Saturday through Monday
    • There will be a sharp cutoff in this rainfall somewhere just west of the interstate 95 corridor
    • Several inches are possible for immediate coastal areas

Here is my initial threat map:

Here is my latest video discussion on this evolving situation...

6pm Storm Update On Tap

Many concerns to discuss.

Thursday Morning: No Changes For Now

I like the thoughts I laid out yesterday in the video discussing how I think our area does get impacted by this system. Now we need to wait to see what the final track of this system will actually end up being. We could see more westward or eastward movements in track over next 24 hours. This will impact who sees heavy rain and who might even see no rain at all. There will be a sharp cutoff in precipitation due to the nature of this system. If that cutoff is north or south of I-95 remains to be seen. 

As an example, here is a model projection of rainfall. Notice the sharp cutoff. Question is where this line actually sets up. I am currently of the opinion that this is more of a hit than a miss. I base this on my analysis of the atmosphere. Some models support me and some do not.

I will give some updated thoughts this evening and have a final forecast out tomorrow for those trying to make weekend plans. In the meantime, the video from yesterday discusses how this storm evolves. Stay tuned!