Thursday, July 28, 2016

Weekend Weather Update

Good morning. Quick update on the weekend. Rain will be in the cards for tomorrow as that front I mentioned earlier in the week drifts back north. An area of low pressure develops along that front and results in heavy rain tomorrow morning. There is still model disagreement on how long this rain lasts. I am leaning towards more of a morning event with a few showers possible tomorrow afternoon.

You can see in the model projection below how the atmosphere will be very ripe with moisture..

This is valid for early tomorrow morning..

Like I said I think by the afternoon this clears out and we just stay under cloudy skies with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

For Saturday and Sunday few scattered showers possible as more impulses try to move along the frontal boundary. Mix of clouds and sun with temps in the mid 80s. 

Stay tuned for my upcoming post on what the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is and how it is one of the key factors I am eyeing for the Winter of 2017!


  1. Hi Willy, it's been a while . . . the weather's been pretty boring here in NJ since February, with too little rain. I see that you are already on the case looking for signs of a long cold snowy winter season. You're talkin PDO, but I'm thinking ENSO / LaNina. But the two interact, right? -- PDO and ENSO can be in synch and amplify the effects of a Nino or Nina, or vice versa. What is it again, a strong Nina could put the kabash on snow up here, but a weak one might encourage it? I'm hearing weak-to-moderate Nina during the winter season. For now, though, how about some tropical storms? I see that two African invests are crossing the Atlantic right now, one of them might get into the Gulf and cause some havoc. But I read that the Saharan dust is pretty strong too, could keep anything much from spinning up. Time for me to wake up and get back to the weather maps and blogs; the interesting weather season pretty closely correlates with the NFL season, and the first pre-season games are just a week or two away. Jim Gerofsky

    1. Hey Jim, hope your well. In general we never want ENSO too strong. Weak nino, weak nina gives us a shot at a decent winter with accounting for other factors of course. The positive PDO we are currently in doesnt support a stong la nina. I think this can end up being la nada or weak el nino. The AMO though we have to keep an eye on as that can be a wild card in throwing a winter forecast off. Too early to know anything for sure, but its def time to start tracking all these factors.