Monday, June 27, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Frontal Passages

Good morning, hope everyone had a good weekend. We have a generally nice week ahead. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80's all week with some showers to deal with early in the week as a front moves through the area.

Today will stay mostly sunny with highs in the low 80's. A frontal boundary approaches tonight which will bring scattered showers...

The tricky part of this forecast is determining how long this front lingers around for. Models are indicating it will stall just to our east Tuesday. This means we need to leave open the chance for more showers with more clouds than sun. You can see below the models show this scattered shower activity lingering...

I think this should all pull out by Wednesday giving way to sunny skies. 

Thursday and Friday are in the clear as well.

Holiday Weekend Sneak Peak:

The overall pattern for Independence Day weekend will feature an upper level trough lingering around the region..

Translation: Temperatures should stay tame (80's) with sunny skies and the chance of a passing shower at times. I do not expect any washouts through early Sunday. I am watching the potential for a low pressure system to develop to our south Sunday afternoon into Monday but there is not enough evidence to for me to mention rain. Right now things look to be in the clear.

Will update again this week. 

Thanks for checking in. 

Friday, June 24, 2016

Friday Weekend Weather Outlook: Picture Perfect

Good morning everyone. We have an absolutely beautiful weekend on tap. Plenty of sunshine, low humidity and temperatures in the low to mid 80's!

High pressure dominates...

We also have winds from northeast today and tomorrow. This helps keep humidity down..

So we have had this persistent wavy weather pattern over the last several weeks. This has resulted in cooler conditions for the east and scorching heat out west.  Its funny how the weather works. Just like in a winter when it stays warm and each modeled cold shot never really materializes the same is happening right now this summer. It has been weeks that things looked like they could move towards a more sustained warm pattern. Latest evidence suggests the contrary.  The European ensemble keeps this pattern in place through Independence Day..

Notice the persistent ridging along the west with the trough of low pressure in the east. This pattern means we will continue to have up and down weather (many fronts moving through) and cooler than normal overall.  If only this was the winter...

Thats all for now, enjoy the weekend!

Monday, June 20, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary

Good morning everyone. It will finally start to feel more like summer as we approach the first day of summer early this week. A big ridge of high pressure is in control and allowing warmer air to funnel into our area from the south over next two days. Expect temperatures today and tomorrow to be in the high 80's and maybe low 90's in a few spots.

Tomorrow we will see a frontal passage with some isolated unsettled weather ahead of this front tonight. Do not be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder or a shower passing by as we head into Tuesday morning..

On Wednesday high pressure is back in control with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 80's.

The only bump in the road this week comes Thursday as a low pressure system dives down from Canada..

This should cause widespread showers and a few storms with mostly cloudy skies. This is all cleared out by Friday morning and paves the way for a beautiful weekend.

A ridge of high pressure (seen below) returns for this weekend resulting in sunny skies with temperatures rising from he low to mid 80's Friday to the high 80's Sunday..

Long Range:

It appears this recent pattern of moderate temps will continue over the next two weeks. This means we will have seasonable conditions overall with a few spikes in temps along the way. The persistent riding of high pressure out west looks to support this pattern. I see no heatwaves in sight through the 4th of July weekend. The question still remains will the east ever break into a sustained pattern of warmer than normal conditions. At this time the trend is not our friend. The MO of this summer so far is up and down weather which keeps things on the cooler side. We will have to see if this continues as we get into the heart of July. 

Thanks for reading.

Friday, June 17, 2016

Friday Morning Weekend Outlook: Picture Perfect

Good morning everyone. Not much to say, we have an absolutely perfect weekend on tap. Sunny skies with temperatures in the low to mid 80s! This is all due to high pressure taking control of our weather..

As we head into next week, the weather stays nice through Tuesday where hot and humid conditions will set the stage for storm potential later on Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches..

No big heatwaves in sight yet. Longer range models still indicate this wavy pattern lingers around through next week. The heat will be an issue in the central part of the country during this whole period. You can see the big ridge pumping up all the warm air from the west coast into the central US..

For our region more troughs and unsettled weather keep things on the cooler side overall for the next 10 days. You can see this when looking at the 5 day average ensemble printouts..

Notice the consistent ridging of high pressure out west.

Will this cooler weather continue all summer? Seasonal models continue to indicate that by the time we get to July things do warm up..

Time will tell. Enjoy the weekend!

Monday, June 13, 2016

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: A Calm Cooler Week With a Chance of Rain Towards the End

Good morning. Our wavy and generally cooler than normal weather pattern will continue this week. We had a cold front move through yesterday which left a chill in the air this morning. 

For today, expect highs to only reach the high 70's for most areas. Moving into Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure will be in control with temperatures in the low to mid 80's. This means sunny skies for the middle part of the work week. 

Things then start to go downhill Thursday as another potential short wave trough moves into the area with its associated front Thursday. This means the chance at rain showers Thursday potentially lingering into Friday morning. You can see the model projection on this below...

Here is the upper level shortwave responsible for this...

Anytime you have a wavy pattern in the jet stream you get these upper level disturbances to become more frequent and swing through. You can see this overall pattern in the image below with areas of high and low pressure in red and blue..

Notice the blue off coast of CA which causes a ridge of high pressure to pump up over the central US which in turn causes impulses of low pressure to develop along the east. This is why we have had unsettled weather with cooler conditions. 

I expect this pattern should start to break down by next week and we go into a more traditional summer pattern for the end of June. 

Moving on to the weekend, things look all clear with temperatures in the 80's and sunny skies. There is a slight chance the unsettled weather can linger but I do not see that as a strong possibility at this time.

Thats all for now, thanks for reading. 

Friday, June 10, 2016

Friday Morning Weekend Weather Note: All Clear

Good morning. Signs of unsettled weather that we saw earlier in the week for this weekend have diminished. We have a beautiful weekend on tap area wide with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 80s...

There is the chance of some storms on Saturday afternoon associated with an approaching fronal system, but nothing that should ruin any the day...

This is associated with a warm front that moves into the area associated with an approaching upper level trough. This shortwave trough dives into New England on Sunday as seen below..

At this time I do not think this comes far enough south to effect Sundays weather. The only thing we should notice is some wind as the strong winds aloft associated with this trough can work their way down to the surface at times. 

We are now seeing a theme develop to early summer which is cooler than normal conditions associated with these frequent troughs that keep swinging through. That will be the theme for the first part of next week with temperatures being kept in the low 80s. You can see below the high pressure in the northern latitudes that usually causes this wavy pattern we are seeing...

Even in the summer if you get high pressure near Greenland it causes the jet stream to buckle which allows cooler and unsettled air to effect the area. Will this continue month long? I will be taking a closer look at this next week.

Monday, June 6, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Nice Week Ahead, Few Bumps Along The Way

Good morning. Rain yesterday paved the way for clear skies today. Expect temperatures to be in the low to mid 80's with sunny skies. 

The overall pattern this week will feature an upper level trough of low pressure that moves into our area. This "cold pool" of upper air will help keep things on the cooler side for most of this week along with serve to provide instability for showers and storms to develop at times..

The front associated with this moves into tomorrow. Expect the chance of some showers and a storm as we head into the afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday but nothing too widespread...

This is a start of a cool down for the rest of the week. Temps from Wednesday though Friday will be in the 70's. 

Right now the weekend looks decent with the shot at some rain around Saturday night. Due to this lingering upper air trough we always have the shot of something called a shortwave to dig down and cause unsettled weather. You can see this possibility Saturday night below..

So overall a pretty nice week ahead. Cooler than normal for the most part with a few chances at some unsettled weather. Will update again as weekend gets closer.

Friday, June 3, 2016

Friday Weekend Weather Update: Saturdays the Day

Good morning everyone. Showers are currently spreading through the area due to a weak cold front. These showers will linger till early afternoon then should give way to mostly cloudy skies..

For Saturday expect beautiful weather with temperatures in the low to mid 80's with mostly sunny skies. 

The issue for this weekend arrives on Sunday. We have a big low pressure system that will swing through southern Canada and bring with it its associated frontal boundaries. 

On Sat night/Sunday morning showers will start to overspread the area as the warm front moves in..

The cold front will then move later in the day causing more showers and some storms. We will have a very moist column of air so heavy rain is possible in the showers and storms..

Below shows the amount of moisture in the air ahead of the front Sunday. Yellow and orange colors are 1 to 2 inches of precipitable water. 

This all clears out by Sunday night paving the way for a nice start to the work week.