Friday, May 13, 2016

Friday Morning Weekend Outlook: Volatile Weekend Weather With a Chill

Good morning everyone. The weekend is finally here so lets take a look at what to expect weather wise.  Overall expect up and down conditions through Sunday. We have showers on tap for later today, some clearing Saturday with more showers Saturday night, followed by a chill in the air Sunday and Monday. Lets take a look.

Later today a cold front will pass through the area. Expect showers to develop this afternoon and last until later this eve..

As I said I think this is all over by later this eve say 7pm

We then get clearing skies for the first half of Saturday with temperatures in the low to mid 70's. However a more potent front then moves inlater Saturday afternoon causing showers and some thunderstorms. 

Check out the cold air this Saturday front will bring in with in as seen by temps at 5000ft below freezing..

Remember it is May, so that is a very impressive front for this time of year. This will keep temps chilly on Sunday where I expect high 50's to mid 60's for many areas. 

The coldest chill will be felt Monday morning. Check out how cold low temps can get as seen by the models..

Yes you are seeing below freezing in many spots and generally the low 30's for much of NNJ. This is a testament to how impressive this front really will be.  It is short lived however and things then warm up as we head through Monday.

At this time, the end of May is staring to look like we can see some real heat. Until then it will be more up and down weather as we continue to have a wavy blocky pattern over the eastern US. 

By the way, our El Nino is completely fading now and we now see the first evidence of a La Nina forming. As a reminder El Nino is warmer than normal waters over the equatorial pacific while La Nina is colder than normal waters. Both effect our weather patterns substantially. La Nina forms when the easterly trade winds strengthen and allow the colder water under the surface to upwell off the coast of South America. Take a look at this starting to occur below where I circled.

All models indicate this continues as we head to next winter and this could in fact be a strong La Nina event. Here is latest model guidance..

Is this overdone? Too early to tell. I will say if this La Nina gets very strong and that warm water ring off the western coast of North America weakens then it is likely we would have a mild winter in the cards. Way to early to make that call. At this point snow lovers need to root on a weaker La Nina with that warm water off the coast staying intact. That would be a great winter lovers scenario.

More on that as the months go on.

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