Winter Storm Outlook


Threat Level: Low
Period: Jan 27th-28th
updated 1/21

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Tuesday Weekly Weather Summary: Cooler But Nice Weather This Week

Good morning, hope everyone had a nice Memorial Day Weekend. We had a nice taste of summer weather with temperatures in the 90's. Yesterday was interesting. Half the region ended up having a beautiful day with limited rain while the other half to the south did not make out so well. In any event, this week things look to be excellent weather wise.

Temperatures today will be in the mid 80's in most places. By tomorrow through Friday we cool down into the 70's with mostly sunny skies. We might see some shower activity on Friday as a weak front moves through. Nothing impressive at this time..

Saturday looks to be a nice day but I will be watching for more consistent unsettled weather on Sunday as a trough of low pressure develops over the east...

This will be a brief pattern change and should end up giving us some rain Sunday as a low pressure center develops and tracks through our area later in the day Sunday..

We will have to see how this evolves as we get more model data in this week.

Overall the first week of June looks to be more on the cooler side. The question is when the heat will arrive again. At this time I would say its not until the day 10+ period.  I do think this summer should turn out to be slightly warmer than normal when it is all said and done.

Thanks for checking in. 

Friday, May 27, 2016

Friday Memorial Day Weekend Update: Hot & Humid, Rain Monday

The summer weather we all have been waiting for is here. Temps will hover close to 90 over the next 3 days with humid conditions. Sunny skies are to be expect with maybe a stray shower or storm. This is all due to an upper level ridge of high pressure allowing the warm air from the south to flow into our area..

This ridge stays in place until Memorial Day where a cold front will enter our area causing showers and storms. Another interesting feature will be a tropical system that might impact the southeast. How this tropical system interacts with the cold front will be something to watch.  Right now you can see the models showing both features clearly on Monday. The low near South Carolina is the tropical system.

There is the chance that the cold front can help bring all the moisture from the tropical system north causing enhanced rainfall. 

Will comment more on that this weekend.

Enjoy the nice weather!

Monday, May 23, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Finally A Stretch of Summer Weather

Good morning everyone. Well the weekend ended up being up and down. Saturday featured rain while yesterday ended up decent for the most part. Moving through this week into the holiday weekend I am seeing the all clear signal for summer like weather to enter the area. In fact by this weekend we might just might see upper 80's and maybe 90's in some spots!

For the first part of this week expect temps in the 70's with the chance at some showers later today and tomorrow.  Cloudy conditions will enter the area by later today as an upper level low pressure system spins in some energy from offshore seen below..

This will cause a few showers from later today though tomorrow. No washouts just a nuisance from time to time. 

By Wednesday things will really start to ramp up as temps can climb into the 80's with sunny skies. A big upper level ridge then forms over the area for the end of this week into the weekend. This basically means we have warm air from the south moving up into our area as seen below..

We have not seen a pattern like this all spring basically and it absolutely has the potential to bring with it 90's this weekend for some. In general widespread 80's are very likely. The weather should stay mostly clear with the exception of a pop up shower here or there. 

Will have another update later this week.

Friday, May 20, 2016

Friday Morning Weekend Update: Rain is The Word, Memorial Day Weekend Sneak Peak

Good morning everyone. Enjoy the beautiful weather today because tomorrow looks to be a complete washout. That coastal storm I have been talking about will hit us directly and that means periods of steady rain and some wind tomorrow. 

Earlier in the week some models were taking this more south but over last 36 hours a clear trend more north has emerged. Here is what to expect.

Rain should break out in most areas by mid to late morning as the coastal low starts to move towards our area..

By the afternoon into early evening rain should pick up in intensity for most areas. This will be the height of the storm. Wind will also be an issue near the coast..

In terms of winds there is a decent model consensus of wind gusts up to 45 knots or 50mph along the coast as seen below. Inland areas will see gusts up to 35mph..

When it is all said and  done I expect this all to completely taper off by Sunday morning.  The heaviest rain should also be over by later Saturday night with just a lingering shower or two.

The sun could try to break through a little Sunday but there will still be the threat of a few showers. Highs will be in the upper 60's. 

Memorial Day Weekend Sneak Peak:

Looks like we might finally see a break in this unsettled weather with much warmer conditions as our variable weather pattern breaks down! In fact do not be surprised if it actually does feel like summer with temps in the 80's and sunny skies. This nice stretch of weather will start end of next week through Memorial Day.

I will have more details this week. 

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Mid Week Weather Update: Clear Through Friday, Coastal Storm Concerns Saturday

Good morning everyone. Skies will start to clear today and we will start a beautiful stretch of weather through Friday. Temperatures will be in the high 60's and low to mid 70's by Friday in most areas. However I am increasingly getting concerned that Saturday will not be so pleasant.

Remember on Monday I mentioned how I was watching the threat for a coastal storm Saturday. Trends have not back off on this and most major model guidance does show at least the chance at rain for Saturday.

The issue right now as always is what will the exact track of this system be. Models at this time are indicating a storm that passes just to our south which can spare the northern areas of any major precipitation. 

The GFS shows this scenario..

However the European and especially Canadian models are showing a more northern trend in this storm. Below is the Canadian for Saturday night..

This would mean a nice consistent rainfall.

So at this time we need to be expecting at least some unsettled weather for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The magnitude of how unsettled it actually gets will still be up in the air and depends on the final track of this system. There is a chance some areas just see cloudy skies. I would lean towards most areas seeing at least light rain Saturday with southern zones more consistent rainfall.

I will update on this tomorrow. 

Monday, May 16, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: More Ups and Downs

Good morning everyone. Yesterday ended up being very interesting weather wise. We had an unusually strong cold air mass move in over the area which made for some interesting weather. I witnessed ice pellets in some of the heavier showers that moved through during the afternoon. Up north and over in PA at the higher elevations snow ended up falling. Check out the web cam from Killington Mountain last night..

Pretty neat stuff and rare for May.

Anyway as we head to this week we will have a few bumps in the road. Today ends up nice with sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

As we head into Tuesday our next round of unsettled weather works its way in by the afternoon as a disturbance causes low pressure to form along a stalled front working its way towards our area..

Expect showers to develop especially by Tuesday afternoon. These showers can linger into Wednesday before we might see some clearing Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday and Friday then look to be the best days of the week with sunny skies and temps in the high 60's to low 70's by Friday.

Heading into the weekend is a toss up right now. We might see another upper air disturbance spawn a coastal low on Saturday. This is still up in the air however so do not write off the weekend yet. The worst case scenario would be what the GFS is showing for Saturday afternoon into Sunday below..

Stay tuned for updates on this.

I mentioned last week and I said again the end of May we should finally see this volatile weather pattern break. That means more consistently warm weather by the time we head towards memorial day.

Thanks for reading more later this week. 

Friday, May 13, 2016

Friday Morning Weekend Outlook: Volatile Weekend Weather With a Chill

Good morning everyone. The weekend is finally here so lets take a look at what to expect weather wise.  Overall expect up and down conditions through Sunday. We have showers on tap for later today, some clearing Saturday with more showers Saturday night, followed by a chill in the air Sunday and Monday. Lets take a look.

Later today a cold front will pass through the area. Expect showers to develop this afternoon and last until later this eve..

As I said I think this is all over by later this eve say 7pm

We then get clearing skies for the first half of Saturday with temperatures in the low to mid 70's. However a more potent front then moves inlater Saturday afternoon causing showers and some thunderstorms. 

Check out the cold air this Saturday front will bring in with in as seen by temps at 5000ft below freezing..

Remember it is May, so that is a very impressive front for this time of year. This will keep temps chilly on Sunday where I expect high 50's to mid 60's for many areas. 

The coldest chill will be felt Monday morning. Check out how cold low temps can get as seen by the models..

Yes you are seeing below freezing in many spots and generally the low 30's for much of NNJ. This is a testament to how impressive this front really will be.  It is short lived however and things then warm up as we head through Monday.

At this time, the end of May is staring to look like we can see some real heat. Until then it will be more up and down weather as we continue to have a wavy blocky pattern over the eastern US. 

By the way, our El Nino is completely fading now and we now see the first evidence of a La Nina forming. As a reminder El Nino is warmer than normal waters over the equatorial pacific while La Nina is colder than normal waters. Both effect our weather patterns substantially. La Nina forms when the easterly trade winds strengthen and allow the colder water under the surface to upwell off the coast of South America. Take a look at this starting to occur below where I circled.

All models indicate this continues as we head to next winter and this could in fact be a strong La Nina event. Here is latest model guidance..

Is this overdone? Too early to tell. I will say if this La Nina gets very strong and that warm water ring off the western coast of North America weakens then it is likely we would have a mild winter in the cards. Way to early to make that call. At this point snow lovers need to root on a weaker La Nina with that warm water off the coast staying intact. That would be a great winter lovers scenario.

More on that as the months go on.

Monday, May 9, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: The Weather Breaks

Good morning everyone. Finally after a week straight of rain we get a break in the weather this week. We are looking at a stretch featuring highs in the high 60s to mid 70s with mostly sunny skies through Thursday. This is due to high pressure finally taking control..

The next shot at unsettled weather looks to be on Friday as a front tries to break on through..

At this time the weekend looks clear.

That's all for now, more later this week. 

Friday, May 6, 2016

Friday Morning Weather Update: Steady Rain Today Gives Way to Clearing Saturday

Good morning everyone. Well, the rain certainly lived up to its hype this week. Right now the region is under a steady rain as an upper level low pressure center pulls a surface low towards the coast. You can see current radar below..

This continues through the morning and by the mid afternoon we have scattered showers..

You can see the upper low that is causing this below..

This starts to slowly fizzle out tomorrow morning leaving behind a few showers which should eventually lead to clearing by Saturday early afternoon. 

So why has the weather been so miserable this week? The answer is that the atmosphere is "clogged up" due to an omega blocking pattern. What is an omega blocking pattern? Take a look below..

We have high pressure ridge (red) out off coast of CA, a trough of low pressure over the west, a ridge of high pressure in the central us and finally a trough over the east. Notice this forms a similar shape to the greek letter omega. This blocking which I specifically indicated by the black lines causes the flow of the atmosphere to slow down. When the flow slows down energy can consolidate and we get long peroids of unsettled weather. If this was the winter boy we would be having fun. Then again, as we enter late spring the jet is weakening so that means shorter wavelengths. 

On Saturday night into Sunday morning another front does sweep through which will cause some showers..

This should be all cleared by mid day. 

Looking to next week we might have more unsettled weather on tap unfortunately as more blocking is evident on long range models. However it does appear by mid May this pattern should break and we go into our traditional late spring warm weather.

Thanks for reading. 

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Wednesday Quick Update: Today Not In The Clear

Good morning. Wanted to give a quick update on today's weather. Earlier in the week it appeared we might have a break in the unsettled weather today. Unfortunately, that will not be the case. 

We have a very impressive upper level trough that is amplifying quicker than expected...

This will mean more showers move into area later today with more showers tomorrow and especially Friday as this upper low lingers over our area.  You can see simulated radar for later today below..

I am still keeping an eye on Saturday as giving us a break from this miserable weather. I will update on the weekend in the coming days. 

Monday, May 2, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Rain Rain Go Away

Good morning everyone. I tell you, what a miserable week we have ahead. Almost every single day will feature rain of some kind. In summary, we have a stalled frontal boundary to our south. Today through tomorrow upper level disturbances will ride along this front and bring in their associated rounds rain. We might get a little break Wednesday then we have a potential coastal low that will keep things unsettled again through Friday night. Lets take a look..

Current surface map above shows a frontal  boundary just to the south of our area. Things will be a little unsettled today as some warm air moves into the area resulting in some showers.

By tomorrow, a wave of low pressure rides along this front causing rain..

We then might see a little break Wednesday as some high pressure tries to build in the region. I still expect mostly cloudy skies.

For Thursday, we have to deal with a coastal low that is projected to develop..

This low pressure system looks like it is going to linger through Friday..

This will result in on and off rain showers Thursday through Friday. 

So how about the weekend? At this time I think we have a shot for all this to clear out by Saturday mid morning as there appears to be a gap between the coastal low and next approaching front Sunday.

Expect mostly cloudy skies on Saturday with the chance at a few sprinkles in the morning. I will have to take a closer look at this towards the end of the week. 

So why is the weather so unsettled? Well it has to do with the jet stream being blocked or slowed down due to high pressure over Greenland and riding out west. You can see this on the image below. Notice the reds or high pressure in those key areas. The blue represents lower pressures or energy that gets caught over the east. This is what is causing all this unsettled weather, the energy has no where to go. If this was the winter boy would we have some snow to deal with this week. Two months too late!

Thats all for now. I will update again this week as we get more clarity on the weather heading into the weekend.