Going back to the stratosphere (way up in the atmosphere, higher than commercial jets), models continue to suggest the polar vortex will come under stress as heating is starting to occur...
Looking above you can see what the atmosphere looking like at the 10-hpa pressure level or in other words way high up at the upper limits of the stratosphere. This image is 168 hours out from now. The colors show the temperature around the northern hemisphere. I want you to notice the area I circled in red. This represents heating that is occurring in the stratosphere. This heating puts stress on the polar vortex and the result is it causes it to migrate off the center of its axis shown by the red X. This heating actually originates at lower altitudes in the troposphere and as it travels to the upper limits of the atmosphere, it can have a drastic effect on our weather conditions especially 3 weeks later.
I will note this is not a major warming event and we are still just looking at model projections. However, one of the reasons we have been seeing such warm weather is because the lack of high pressure or a negative Arctic Oscillation at the pole. The polar vortex under stress can change this and consequently eventually cause a pattern change for the east. To illustrate further, here are projections on the Arctic Oscillation. Notice there are now possible negative outcomes...
So moving on to the weather models, things do stay tranquil though the weekend. Our next shot at unsettled weather comes early next week as a low pressure system should pass to our west..
It is in the wake of this storm system that things could start to get interesting from the 17th through Xmas Eve as there are signs cold are could start pressing as shown below..
IF we get everything aligned property I would not be surprised if it snows around the 19th of the month up in New England and possibly further south as a storm system could ride the boundary of warm and cold air as I indicated above.
This is still not our main pattern change but at least we got some action on the table here! Below you can see the surface map of warm and cold air clashing..
Sure this could develop well inland but my point is it all depends on how much this cold air presses east. It is something that bears watching as we head towards the Xmas holiday.
As a reminder here is what I projected for the January weather pattern back in October in my winter outlook..
Compared to December..
Thanks for reading. I'll cut a video this week w more detail l.