- Only part of our forecast area that has a shot at freezing rain and sleet is north to NW NJ into southern NY and CT.
- Central and South Jersey will be all rain
- The frozen precip that does fall in Northern zones will change to all rain quick by daybreak
- For elevations over 700ft temps will stay below freezing longer so be careful of frozen surfaces
- Ski country I'm VT,NH,ME does decent with 4 to 8 inches of front end snow before changeover to sleet by mid morning Tuesday
Here is my map..
National weather service does have advisories up for northern zones..
This all is over by tomorrow afternoon with rain.
So let's move on to discussing the big pattern change coming our way. To review, here was my original thesis on this:
- Mild December would give way to colder January and February. February will be banner month.
- This was due to projected stratospheric warming along w ocean temperature patterns per my winter outlook.
- The el nino will only enhance the moisture on the field via the subtropical jet meaning changes for big storms as winter matures
- Key is a western ridge w moisture cutting underneath. If we have blocking in place via the Atlantic it's game on
Looking above you can see updated projections on our upper air pattern in January. A large ridge of high pressure is projected to form over the west into AK. This is huge as it could mean we have arctic air directly injected into the United states! Notice also we have all the blue underneath. This is an active storm track due to the el nino keeping the sub tropical jet very alive. Now don't get too excited yet about big storms. We still need to see ridging or high pressure form near Greenland which will take some more time. However this initial pattern can feature more clipper like systems meaning the chance of light snowfalls first 2 weeks of Jan.
Now let's also see how our stratosphere is evolving. Warming has already started at some levels and all indications are it will continue and put big pressure on our polar vortex. This is huge as I always said we needed to see this happen below..
Notice how elongated it is and pushed off the pole. This will have drastic impacts as January progresses. The net effect of this stratospheric warming is a negative Arctic Oscillation which means high pressure at the pole which unlocks all cold air. Check out the projections on this below. Very impressive and would have HUGE implications on cold in the United States. Opposite pattern of what we have had from Nov-Dec that caused the warmth!
Here is an estimate of temperatures next 16 days. I expect temps can end up being lower than what's shown at the end of this period..
So overall I love what I am seeing. It makes me confident in the forecast I laid out in October. I think we are in for a lot of fun this winter. Remember I still think the big storms are a few weeks away but until then we will all enjoy the transition of this season. Or at least I know I will.
Thanks for reading.