Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Wednesday Night Tropical Update: All Signs Still Point to Landfall

Hurricane Joaquin is currently strengthening and all eyes are now on where this storm will make landfall (if it makes landfall). In the video below I give you my latest perspective on what the potential outcomes are. 

Many images provided by 

As a note the ensemble map I used in video actually was an old map by mistake, regardless the new ensemble map below still shows my concern of this storm making a slight shift more north than modeled.

Here is the bottom line as of tonight:

  • All signs point to a land falling hurricane Sunday
    • Right now most likely spot is the Outer Banks into southern Va
    • Winds over 70 mph with beach erosion and torrential rain within 70 miles of the storm center
    • To the north over NJ, NYC, heavy rain, gale force wind gusts (coast), and extremely rough ocean surf Sunday into Monday
  • There are two other scenarios they are:
    • Storm goes out to sea (European model)
    • Storm drifts more north than modeled (my concern)
  • At this time I think a 60% blend of the GFS model and a 35% blend of European makes sense in nailing down this track
    • This would mean a landfall just to the north of the Outer Banks
  • Prior to the main storm impact, Friday will feature rain and wind from tropical energy currently along a stalled front. 
  • When it is all said and done at the very least I am thinking we see another 2-5" of rain through Monday
More tomorrow morning. Stay tuned!


  1. I had a moment to watch the pressure animations from the 12Z GFS and Euro. To my untrained eye and very crude intuitive sense of what I saw, the Euro basically "thinks" that high pressure effects are going to dominate the low pressure dynamics. As for GFS and most of the other models, just the opposite. Perhaps the current weather set-up favors strengthening low pressure and troughs, but where have they been all summer (and into the first week of autumn)? Are the North American atmospheric macro-dynamics going to change on a dime? It was supposed to rain all day here in Essex, but it turned out mostly dry after a solid inch or so early on. The Euro model almost seems to be "having those thoughts", i.e. doubtful thoughts with question marks included. But tomorrow is another day, and we shall see if Euro is "brave" enough to stay with that theory tomorrow morning, the 0Z. Till then, time to get some Z's . . . Jim G

  2. Good observations yesterday Jim! Idk if you saw that 0z GFS last night but it had everyone talking. However we saw this morning that it was nothing more than a trend toward Euro. By tomorrrow am we might be able to put the nail in this coffin IF east trend continues w other models. Very stressful setup. Makes forecasting a witner storm look like a breeze.