Thursday, September 24, 2015

Thursday Morning Weather Update: Most Areas Should Stay Dry This Weekend

Good morning, as we are now towards the end of the week lets revisit some of the discussion points from my post on Monday.

Starting off with the low pressure that is developing off the southern coast, I still do not expect this will effect anyone north of Baltimore/Washington with too much unsettled weather. There is the slight chance that South Jersey and Phili can get more rain than I expect on Sunday with this, but overall it looks like the high pressure to the north will hold long enough that the whole region will stay more on the dry side. Here is an updated model projection..

This is the GFS model which is a little more aggressive with bringing the rain a little more north. However, even in this more northern case here is the total rainfall..

Notice the biggest areas is south of DC into VA and the Carolina's. In fact the Canadian weather model ensemble might have the right idea here in terms of the rainfall map..

Bottom line: Anyone south of DC should expect rain this weekend. For south Jersey I am still leaning towards mostly cloudy skies with the chance for a few showers at best. North Jersey, just mostly cloudy on Sunday. We will monitor to see if this trends north at all over next two days. Temps for most areas will be in low 70's all weekend. 

Moving on to the Gulf of Mexico, I mentioned we would have to watch for some storm development due to the overall weather pattern (high pressures to the north, low pressures to the south). At this time it does not appear anything major (hurricane) will develop, although it is likely we see a storm hit the area early next week..

The upper level winds are not too favorable for major storm development here but it still bears watching as we get into the weekend.  

Moving into the longer range, some evidence is building that we can see a pattern change as we get into the second week of October. This would mean our first real shot at fall weather. I am still analyzing this and will have more information over the next week.

Thanks for checking in, I will have a brief update tomorrow afternoon if anything changes with Sunday's weather. 

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