Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Quick Evening Update

Well today's model runs certainty did not make this any easier. Here is the updated spread.

The European model stalls the storm and allows it to drift off to the northeast late this weekend..

Still very heavy rains but the high impact storm threat in terms of wind is left out to sea as seen above.

The other models not so fast..

Latest GFS is defaulting to the worst case scenario with a mid Atlantic Hurricane impact..

I still think this is over done BUT..its ensemble mean shows similar low placement..

Not to mention the unreliable hurricane models are not backing down..

Do we believe this worst case scenario? It is still to early to buy into this. HOWEVER, I think there is a higher probably of this being a land falling storm and not drifting out to sea like the European shows. Just because it hits land does not mean it will be as strong as above. That is something we have to watch evolve. 

I will have a video out first thing in the morning. I will also try to nail down a forecast by tomorrow night or Thursday morning.

Stay tuned!

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