Friday, September 4, 2015

Labor Day Weekend Weather Forecast

Good Friday morning everyone. It looks like we could not ask for better weather heading into the last weekend of summer. We currently have whats called a backdoor cold front working our way into the region. This will cause temps to stay on the cooler side today into Saturday. You can see the front below by the lower dewpoints (green) to the northeast approaching our area with also a change in wind direction..

On Saturday we have sunny skies with temps in the 70's and very low humidity..


Due to the cooler air mass from the backdoor cold front, we will have low temps in the lower 60's and 50's for many areas Saturday night. This will remind everyone fall is not far away. 

By the time we get to Labor Day warmer air returns as an upper level ridge turns the flow back to the southwest. Expect temps to climb into the upper 80's for Monday. 

In terms of rainfall there is very little chance as we head through the weekend. Maybe a isolated shower here or there but not worth forecasting.

On another note, the new monthly run of the SST CA forecast model just came in yesterday. Here is its projection for winter temps..





Do I buy it at this time? That is a big maybe. This is certainly a possible outcome based on the research I have been doing for my winter forecast (comes out in October). However, there are some other things I am closely monitoring that could drastically change the Winter outcome. I think this model overall is sniffing something out but we can not take this output literally at this time. Any change in the sea surface temperature pattern between now and December can really change the outcome you see above. Another model the CFSv2 which I will mention never seems to get anything right has this for winter..


I can see this as also a possible scenario. It is all going to come down to how the ocean set up effects the jet stream position. That is all I will say for now. I will share some other thoughts leading up to my official 2016 Winter Forecast as the weeks go on.

Enjoy the weekend!

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