Sunday, March 30, 2014

Sunday Night/Monday Morning Discussion: Spring Weather This Week

BUT will winter swing one last punch before its knocked out for good in the 10 day period (after next weekend)???? The answer is in the video below. 




Thursday, March 27, 2014

Thursday Morning Weather Discussion

What a storm that was yesterday out in the Atlantic. Over parts of Maine and Nantucket wind gusts reported over 110mph! Several inches of snow fell as well. You do not see a storm like that often maybe once every ten years.

Video below talks about moderating weather pattern.




Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Tuesday Night Storm Update: Waving Goodbye to Winter

Video gives updates on the dynamics of this powerful off shore storm. Trust me we are much better off this did not impact. Wind gusts up to 80mph with this system.  Overall pattern update tomorrow in the AM. 




Tuesday Morning: Large Storm Spares Our Area

Good morning. Below is the final snow map for tonight into tomorrow. The storm will not trend west and stay mostly off shore. Cape Cod and eastern Maine will see significant accumulations and our area will see a very minor event with some wind. Part of me really wanted to see one last accumulating snow before the snap to spring next week so maybe it clouded my judgement a little. I will say however, the models did a great job with this storm, very consistent since the end of last week. I never expected more than 2-6" for our area, but I did think this would trend more west than it will giving us more than an inch or two. That will not happen. So enjoy the last of winter tonight and we will close the books on the Winter of 2014 and look ahead to spring and summer. I will still be posting in the "off season" as the weather always has something interesting to talk about. Lets not forget we are not far off from severe weather season. 

Thanks for all the new followers this season and I hope you guys continue to enjoy this blog throughout the year. It has been a real pleasure giving my perspective on the weather and having an audience to speak to. 

More later tonight as this very impressive storm develops offshore. 



Monday, March 24, 2014

Monday Morning: Storm to Moderately Impact Region Tuesday Night

Made a few small tweaks to my snow map from yesterday, but overall I like the idea of a storm impacting our region with the most harsh conditions being over eastern Mass and Maine. Next update will be tonight, I will stay on top of this since it will be our last shot at a winter storm for this season.

Updated Map:




Light blue region: Snow Showers
Dark Blue: 2-6"
Red: 8-16"

Video Discussion: 


Sunday, March 23, 2014

Sunday Morning: Preliminary Snowfall and Storm Forecast

All details including my snow map are in the video below. I will be updating things again this evening when I get more data. I am in the camp that this storm continues a slight trend west and will effect our area with more than just snow showers. This means an accumulating snowfall for most of our area.  Why do I think a trend more west? Basically it has to do with the model trend in the Europeans upper air projections and the ocean temperatures off the coast. Keep checking in as things are subject to change. 




Saturday, March 22, 2014

Saturday Morning: My First Estimate

Here is my impact map for the storm next week. Much more detail to come by tomorrow. 


Explanation in video below. 



Friday, March 21, 2014

I Am Going To Wait For Tonight Models..I'll Make an Initial Call On This Tomorrow AM

Friday Morning: Not Much to Add Since Last Night

I want to wait till Saturday to see how seriously I should take this potential system. As of now my thoughts are outlined in last nights video. It all comes down to timing which makes this even more hard to predict. This has an equal chance of going either way at this point (big storm or no storm). I do not think we see a middle ground with this one. We either get a big one or get nothing. The good news is spring is here now and after next week winter is over for good for our area. 

More later. 

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Thursday Night: A Closer Look at Storm Threat Next Week

Although the climatology is against us,  late season snowstorms have happened in the past and have dumped quite a bit of snow over our area. Yes they are rare, but they can happen and the European weather model and its ensemble members argue that we need to keep an eye on Wednesday. Details in the video below. I will get more detailed as the days go on and when I have a chance to evaluate how serious (or not) this threat will be. 





Thursday Morning Update

We still need to watch the middle of next week for a potential large storm system. As of now the model guidance insists this will stay off shore but it is too close for comfort.

The European:


The GFS


It will all come down to the timing of the two disturbances. We are in a very progressive pattern but have a lack of blocking to the north. This does not mean a storm can not form, it just means timing is more important than ever. Very busy catching up at work but will try to put out a detailed video tonight. 


Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Back From Vacation: Tuesday Night Update

Spring is around the corner but winter is going down swinging. Will this result in anything? Video below goes into details. 



Friday, March 14, 2014

Friday Update: Storm Threat Still On Table

In the video below I discuss the dynamics behind the storm system for Monday. The question is will this be another suppressed system due to the press of cold air or will it trend north. We will know more tonight and I will put out a map by tomorrow.




Thursday, March 13, 2014

Monday Next Week: Threat Still On Table

Models are waffling. The Euro had a storm not it keeps it south. The Canadian has a very big storm for the whole east coast. All everyone needs to know is the potential is on the table right now. After skiing I will update tonight with a video explaining dynamics. For now..

Canadian

\\


Euro





Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Out In Park City UT..I'll Update Thursday AM

More storms on the horizon. New England got a great dumping today. I'm telling you guys this is not over!

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Tuesday Night Discussion: Don't Let Down Your Guard

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Tuesday Morning: Next Update Tonight

Nothing to add this morning to yesterdays post. I will update again later tonight. Be sure to tune in. Storm will be strong but mostly rain for our area with some snows on the back end. 

Monday, March 10, 2014

Monday Morning: A New England Special On The Way

Good morning, the video below is a play by play of the snowstorm this week. The main impact area is New England and our area will be spared any significant snow. This is due to the arctic air arriving late. We are still not out of the woods with this pattern however. Although the seasons are changing we still need to keep a close eye on more potential storm threats such as next Tuesday. Temperatures moderate early this week ahead of the storm system. I still do not see a full blown spring until at least late march/early April. We will only see spurts of spring followed by colder temps. Very up and down month.




Friday, March 7, 2014

Friday Morning: European Model Not Backing Down

Quick post today, I have a very busy day then I will be gone skiing for the weekend. In any event, the european model still is insisting on a large storm to effect the east middle of next week. I explained the dynamics behind this storm in my Wednesday post. Here is its latest surface map..


Projected snowfall:


I will have limited access this weekend but will update on twitter on this storm threat. The GFS is not as strong with this system so this is by no means a lock. 

In any event the new long range European Weeklies came out yesterday and its bad news for those wanting spring. This could last into April this year. 


Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Wednesday Morning: A Closer Look at Potential Storm Next Week

Quite simply despite the high degree of volatility in the models, storm threats still need to be taken seriously due to the pattern we are in. The European model continues to hint at a storm developing middle to end of next week as two jet stream disturbances combine along the east coast and run into a cold area of high pressure. 

Here is an overview:

Two jet disturbances: Notice the short wave to the south over AK and the northern short wave diving down over Minnesota. These could potentially combine 


As they combine they develop an area of low pressure in the southern states that runs into a cold blocking high over our region as seen below (orange is high pressure, blue and green low)..


This results in the storm intensifying over our area:


Potential snowfall:


I will be clear that this storm is still far from a certainty and a lot needs to come together perfectly to produce the snowfall map above. My point is and has always been over the last two weeks now that we are in a pattern that can produce storms like this. That is why I am showing you this illustration of the WORST case scenario. Instead of coming in like a lion, March might be the month of the lion with the prolonged below average temps and shots at snow through month end. Long term climate signals I look at do not show the full surge of spring taking hold until at least April this year. Remember below average temps in March are a lot warmer than below average in January but it still will not be pleasant outside. 

I will zone in on this potential storm threat as the days go by and I determine the likelihood of this occurring.



Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Tuesday Weather Discussion

The cold pattern continues but temps will moderate heading into this weekend. Possible light snow on Sunday followed by another big storm threat middle of next week. As always and especially this winter you can not take any big storm threat seriously this far out. However, like I have been saying this is the pattern for big storms so it always bears watching. 



Monday, March 3, 2014

Monday Morning Video Discussion: Moving Past Today's Bust

Video below takes a look at the weather over the next week and temperature trends for the next two weeks.  We may have to watch for the end of this week 




Sunday, March 2, 2014

Sunday Morning Storm Update: This Ones For The Birds

Good morning. The video below discusses the latest on the storm system to effect our area tonight into tomorrow. For the most part, the storm is a bust for everyone to the north of Trenton due to the press of cold air. To the south of Trenton some moderate accumulations will occur with the heaviest in extreme south Jersey and central Delaware. 

Video commentary below:




Here is the final snowfall forecast. I will have an update tonight. 


10am Update on Tap

Saturday, March 1, 2014

Sat Afternoon: Still a High Degree of Uncertainty Heading Into Tomorrow

We are 24 hours away from this storm system and there is still a high degree of uncertainty with this forecast. Taking everything into account I have made a final snowfall map and explain in the video what to expect with this storm. This storm will occur Sunday night into Monday eve with worst conditions early Monday morning into the afternoon.  





Here is my snowfall map, I want to acknowledge I am not ruling out a last second shift to the north which would bump the totals up closer to a foot in north Jersey and result in more mixing to the south. That's how volatile this forecast is. More updates later.