Monday, October 13, 2014

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Winter Forecast out Wednesday Morning!

Good morning, we have a pretty active week of weather ahead. All due to the impact of a big storm system over the central US right now...

Ahead of the impacts of the front that will swing through from this storm, expect very warm conditions to develop tomorrow and Wednesday due to the storm pumping up a ridge ahead of its pass into our area. You will also hear talk of severe weather in parts of the east (not so much our area) due to the powerful cold front that this storm is bringing along with it. Here is the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The main effect our area will see is by Thursday but cloudy conditions should prevail for most of this week with a shower or two as the low pressure system approaches are area. In fact, this low pressure system will actually "cut off" from the jet stream and be separate from the overall flow in the weather pattern. This can happens from time to time and results in persistent unsettled weather due to the low spinning over the area.. The image below shows the low cut off from the overall jet stream.

You can see by Wed night into Thurs the main rains hit our area..

Taking a look a the longer range:

A few items to note. For one as I have been talking about the period after the 20th should see some active weather along the eastern part of the country. This is due to a trough that will develop in the jet stream over our area (troughs bring cold air and can develop areas of low pressure) and a very active tropical Atlantic. In fact a storm over the weekend brushed by Bermuda and another tropical system will develop this week...

Right now it does not look like a treat, but the tropics will remain active through the end of October and my concern is one of these developing storms can effect someone from the Gulf states to the east coast.

Here is the trough that will form over our area around the 20th I have been talking about last several posts..

This opens up the door for developing systems to get enhanced as they move closer to the country. Although the potential is there, this is no time to start preparing for any type of hurricane hit. Just be aware that the Atlantic is active with an approaching trough along the eastern USA from the 20th-27th time period. That typhoon over Japan I discussed last week has helped enhance this pattern during the period being discussed. 

Past this period, the models try to warm things up and end October on a pleasant note. I will keep monitoring this.

More details on how I expect this pattern to evolve into Winter in my Winter Outlook 2015 on Wednesday. 

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