Monday, June 30, 2014

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: A Tropical Threat Looming

Good morning, there is a lot to talk about today. What appeared to be a pleasant end to June and leading up to the 4th of July now has drastically changed. This is due to a wildcard being thrown into the mix which is the potential for a tropical storm/hurricane to develop in the Atlantic later in the week. I will start off by saying it is highly unlikely that our area will be hit directly by a tropical system, the focus is more for the coast of the Carolinas. However, this storm will through a wrench in the 4th of July weather forecast. Lets start off with looking at a front that will approach our area Wednesday and Thursday bringing with it showers and storms..

This is valid Thursday night, but expect unsettled weather later on Wednesday and during the day on Thursday as well. Now take a look off the coast of SC, see that low pressure center? That is the tropical system that is starting to develop by Thursday. 

As we head into the 4th of July here is where its at...

The outer banks look like they will be impacted from this system, and to the north and west (our area) will be the victim of cloudy conditions and showers for this time Friday. 

As we head into Saturday this system will curve out to sea and should continue to intensify..

Our weather will become pleasant at this time. So lets going into a little more detail on what is going to help this storm develop and the upper air set up. 

Here are the ocean temp departures from normal..

As you can see very warm water along the east coast currently. This favors a strengthening storm along with the passing cold front ahead of the storm that will cool things down over land. Boundaries between warm and cold air are where storms like to travel.

Moving up 12,000 feet in the air, we can see a Jet Stream through sweeping through the east coast (blue colors over the lakes), with the storm just to its east (small blue circle just off coast)..

The saving grace here is that we have a progressive pattern, meaning that this through will not "capture" the storm and pull it into land, which is what happened with Hurricane Sandy. Since the flow will be fast in the jet, everything should glide out to sea. Most models have that projection at this time..

So bottom line what do we know...

  • Unsettled weather will effect the regions starting Wednesday and especially into Thursday and Friday, as a front then a tropical system effect our area
    • This will compromise the weather for the 4th holiday
  • It is still too early to predict how strong this storm will become. I would estimate it turns into a tropical storm but stays short of being a hurricane. This would still batter the outer banks with high winds and waves.
  • The storm has not developed yet so this forecast is subject to change. These tropical system one they develop and strengthen pretty quickly which is why I will be tracking this all week. 
Many updates to come on the blog this week, be sure to keep checking in. 

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