Monday, June 30, 2014

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: A Tropical Threat Looming

Good morning, there is a lot to talk about today. What appeared to be a pleasant end to June and leading up to the 4th of July now has drastically changed. This is due to a wildcard being thrown into the mix which is the potential for a tropical storm/hurricane to develop in the Atlantic later in the week. I will start off by saying it is highly unlikely that our area will be hit directly by a tropical system, the focus is more for the coast of the Carolinas. However, this storm will through a wrench in the 4th of July weather forecast. Lets start off with looking at a front that will approach our area Wednesday and Thursday bringing with it showers and storms..

This is valid Thursday night, but expect unsettled weather later on Wednesday and during the day on Thursday as well. Now take a look off the coast of SC, see that low pressure center? That is the tropical system that is starting to develop by Thursday. 

As we head into the 4th of July here is where its at...

The outer banks look like they will be impacted from this system, and to the north and west (our area) will be the victim of cloudy conditions and showers for this time Friday. 

As we head into Saturday this system will curve out to sea and should continue to intensify..

Our weather will become pleasant at this time. So lets going into a little more detail on what is going to help this storm develop and the upper air set up. 

Here are the ocean temp departures from normal..

As you can see very warm water along the east coast currently. This favors a strengthening storm along with the passing cold front ahead of the storm that will cool things down over land. Boundaries between warm and cold air are where storms like to travel.

Moving up 12,000 feet in the air, we can see a Jet Stream through sweeping through the east coast (blue colors over the lakes), with the storm just to its east (small blue circle just off coast)..

The saving grace here is that we have a progressive pattern, meaning that this through will not "capture" the storm and pull it into land, which is what happened with Hurricane Sandy. Since the flow will be fast in the jet, everything should glide out to sea. Most models have that projection at this time..

So bottom line what do we know...

  • Unsettled weather will effect the regions starting Wednesday and especially into Thursday and Friday, as a front then a tropical system effect our area
    • This will compromise the weather for the 4th holiday
  • It is still too early to predict how strong this storm will become. I would estimate it turns into a tropical storm but stays short of being a hurricane. This would still batter the outer banks with high winds and waves.
  • The storm has not developed yet so this forecast is subject to change. These tropical system one they develop and strengthen pretty quickly which is why I will be tracking this all week. 
Many updates to come on the blog this week, be sure to keep checking in. 

Monday, June 23, 2014

Monday June 23rd Weather Discussion: A Very Pleasant Week Ahead

Doesn't get much better than this, we will have one of the best weeks of the year ahead of us weather wise. High pressure will be in control through Wednesday keeping the sky's calm and temps in the low 80's

The only bump in the road looks to be Wednesday where showers will effect our area..

By Thursday these showers clear out and we go back to calm conditions through the weekend with temperatures in the low 80's again!

Since a calm weather week means a boring weather week for me, lets take a look at what the 4th of July looks like..

All you need to know is the orange colors indicate high pressure and are a good sign. We are looking at summer like conditions based on the European model's ensemble projection of the position of the jet stream. Although this can change, it is very unlikely at this point that the 4th weekend is not pleasant. Sure a shower could end up getting projected as the next week goes by, but no washout.  

Monday, June 16, 2014

A Little Heat to Start the Week: Monday June 16th Weekly Weather Summary

So with calender summer just around the corner, why not start off the first part of this week with a shot of very warm weather. We will see some of the warmest temps of the season through this Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds over our area..

Temps will rise into the upper 80's, I put a temperature projection chart for Morristown NJ below..

The peaks are the high temps for the given day, the first number is the day of the month, you can ignore the second number. 

As you can see things will cool down by the middle to end of the week and we might even see some showers on Wednesday evening and night as a front passes through our area..

Heading into the weekend, I think the first half of the weekend is overall very decent with temps in the mid to high 70's. I am watching however a trough that might swing through the region later in the weekend that might bring some unsettled weather. But for now I will be positive and say we have a nice weekend ahead. 

That's all for now, I keep saying and I will say again I do not think this will be a very hot summer. In fact looking at the trends of the longer range weather patterns the Winter of 2015 looks to be very interesting. Eventually there will be more to come on this..

Monday, June 9, 2014

June 9th Weekly Weather Summary: A Unsettled Week Ahead

Good morning, hope everyone had a good weekend. We have a unsettled week ahead for our region. Showers will be on and off today and this threat will persist though most of this week with mostly cloudy conditions through Friday. 

Taking a look at the upper air set up, we can see a trough that will develop over our area for this week...

Notice all the red colors to our north especially over Greenland. This is called a negative phase of the NAO pattern which  supports this unsettled cooler weather. In fact, looks like this type of set up will characterize our summer this year which is why I do not expect a very hot summer.

You can see a projected round of showers that will move through our area this morning below...

For the Tuesday through Wednesday time period I do not expect a washout but cloudy conditions will persist with showers possible at times.

Moving onto Thursday into Friday, this is where I expect more steady rainfall. A low pressure center will develop to the west of our area supporting waves of showers through Friday. 

So will the weekend be spared? I believe so, looks like after all this unsettled weather clears out on Friday we are in for another weekend with sunny conditions with temps in the mid 80's!

Monday, June 2, 2014

Monday Weekly Weather Summary & Long Range Peak

Good morning, the weekend turned out to be great weather wise so what will this week bring? Well today will be another summer like day with alot of sunshine and temperatures around 80 degrees. As we approach tomorrow a front will be approaching our area causing a decent chance at thunderstorms by the afternoon. I will be keeping an eye on this tomorrow as some of the storms can have heavy rain and winds.

Moving into Wednesday things will settle down again as another desturbance arrives just in time for Thursday morning bringing us more rain and storms..

After this blows through however the weekend is setting up to be beautiful with temps back in the high 70's with mostly sunshine!

Here are the high and low temperatures for the week as projected by the European model- as time goes out there is more of a spread due to uncertainty..the peaks are highs, the valleys lows for that given day if you look at the block boxes

Now lets start to look at the long range. I will be putting out a more detailed long range outlook sometime this month including a first glance at Winter 2015 but for now lets look at what the models are saying.

For June: I mentioned last week I do not expect a warm June or a very hot summer this year. This is due to a variety of factors such as high latitude blocking. As we go out into the month you can see the model is showing more of a trough over our area which means colder stormier weather..

Notice the high pressure over Greenland, this helps the trough over the east.  Here is what the model is saying for temps all month..

Now to have a little fun, how about January 2015??

Remember these are just models and models this far out can be wrong very very often so it is very important to look at other factors such as Sun activity, ocean cycles, high latitude wind patterns ect to make a more accurate forecast. I will break down all those factors when I put out my more detailed thoughts on the summer and next winter later this month. 

Enjoy the week.