Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Wednesday Morning: A Closer Look at Potential Storm Next Week

Quite simply despite the high degree of volatility in the models, storm threats still need to be taken seriously due to the pattern we are in. The European model continues to hint at a storm developing middle to end of next week as two jet stream disturbances combine along the east coast and run into a cold area of high pressure. 

Here is an overview:

Two jet disturbances: Notice the short wave to the south over AK and the northern short wave diving down over Minnesota. These could potentially combine 

As they combine they develop an area of low pressure in the southern states that runs into a cold blocking high over our region as seen below (orange is high pressure, blue and green low)..

This results in the storm intensifying over our area:

Potential snowfall:

I will be clear that this storm is still far from a certainty and a lot needs to come together perfectly to produce the snowfall map above. My point is and has always been over the last two weeks now that we are in a pattern that can produce storms like this. That is why I am showing you this illustration of the WORST case scenario. Instead of coming in like a lion, March might be the month of the lion with the prolonged below average temps and shots at snow through month end. Long term climate signals I look at do not show the full surge of spring taking hold until at least April this year. Remember below average temps in March are a lot warmer than below average in January but it still will not be pleasant outside. 

I will zone in on this potential storm threat as the days go by and I determine the likelihood of this occurring.

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