Friday, January 24, 2014

Friday Morning Weather Discussion

Good morning. I was going to cut a video, but instead this post will be a follow up of my last video where I discussed the active 10 days ahead. I speculated that we would see light snow on Saturday, again on Monday, then a possible bigger storm to follow later in the week. Lets see what model trends look like.

Models keeping the light snow threat consistent for Saturday- Coating to an inch or two some spots

Monday looks to be more of a snow shower event as main low stays to our north..


Now things still have the potential to get interesting mid to late week as we have extremely cold arctic air over the country with a lot of energy in play. I am keeping my eye on a disturbance diving down from Canada and another disturbance developing in the southern stream. Will the northern disturbance dive deep enough to combine with this southern stream disturbance? The European hints it could..

You can see the two disturbances circled above. If the northern one stays shallow then we do not get a big storm. Also if the southern one drags its heels it becomes harder to form a big storm as well. What we need is a sharp dive of the northern energy, more than the model is predicting. At the surface the euro trys to combine these but does so late and off shore..

 Two days ago no storm was even on the map when I cut the evening video, so the trend is there on all models may I add. If the modeling continues the same error it has made all winter of not diving the northern disturbance deep enough then we have a big issue on our hands. This is a very rare cold arctic air mass that will be over the country during this period. If we see an earlier and deeper phase of these two disturbances then it could snow as far south as GA and come right up the coast. Will this happen???? All I can say now is it is not the general consensus but has me concerned. I will be looking for a correction here.

Hey weatherwilly how about the Superbowl?

Some interesting buzz is going to begin about snow on the Superbowl. Models are hinting at a wave of low pressure trying to develop in the morning and spreading some snow into the area. It bears watching, but I do not anticipate a big storm at this time during the game. 

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