Friday, November 8, 2013

Friday Morning Storm Threat Update

Good morning. We now have a very large divergence between the European weather model that try's to blow up a monster storm giving the Mid Atlantic over a foot of snow next week and the other models which have all now backed off on the storm. Here is what we are looking at.

European: 975mb low blizzard conditions

 European Snowfall: 12-14 inches

Before people get too concerned here is GFS: A non event

A non event in this solution. Other models are along with the GFS but maybe slightly more to the west. This may be a case were the European is actually getting beat out by the other models, and the reason I say that is because its ensemble prediction system also is further east with this storm, which tells me that the model has a large margin of error at this point in time. Also, the flaw of the European is it likes to over bundle energy just as the GFS problem is it likes to sheer out energy out to sea. Since we have such a wide margin of outputs by both models, even taking an average will give us a non event, and we just end up with some very cold air. 

So whats the conclusion. I think for one this afternoons run of the European model will tell the tale. If it goes along with other guidance and shifts way east, I can confidently say we can throw in the towel on this storm threat. If however it remains firm with an idea of an historical storm effecting the east coast then we have to wait till at least the weekend to make a final call. Right now I am gaining confidence that this will not be a major storm for our area as the GFS is showing.

I will update later this afternoon after new models runs. Thanks for checking in. 

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