Aug-Sep Looks to Have Hurricane Potential for Atlantic Regions

Hurricane season is entering its peak phase, and the atmosphere is setting up to be ripe for some possible hurricane development to effect the western Atlantic regions over the next two months and possibly the east coast. This will be due to a cool US, a warm Atlantic, and blocking high pressure to the north. The only inhibitor right now looks to be alot of dry air moving off of Africa that is suppressing tropical development in Atlantic. Lets take a look at the factors..

Projected colder than normal temps in the US due to a through forecast to dominate most of Aug...

Combine this cooler weather with a warmer than normal Atlantic ocean, and you have an imbalance in the atmosphere that could spell tropical development. Current ocean temps compared to average (warm water keeps tropical storms strong)..

The next factor is blocking high pressure to the north that will keep storm tracks from moving too far off the coast (represented in red)..

Interestingly alot of the current pattern setup resembles 1938 which is not something that anyone would want to see for the east coast. The great new England Hurricane hit that year . Here is what the same map at that time looked like in 1938...

Correlation does not equal causation, but it is very interesting to see these similarities. Here where the storm tracks for 1938, the big one hitting long island that year causing devastation (look up New England Hurricane of 1938).....

Due to the high pressure in northern Atlantic notice no storms traveled into that region. Instead  they all undercut it to the west towards the US.

There is one big factor that is preventing current storms from forming and that is very dry air coming off of Africa...

If this dry air dissipates, then watch out, I think we can see a lot of tropical development aimed at the eastern and more likely southeastern US. 

I will keep and eye on all of this over the next few weeks.