Thursday, March 21, 2013

Thursday Am: Model Battle For Next Week's Storm

Good morning, there remains many question marks for next weeks storm system. Some models have a big mid Atlantic storm, while others remain consistent on the idea that the storm will stay more south. What bothers me is the highest skill model, the European  has been consistent with a track more to the south with this system. The Canadian and Japanese models both have a powerful snowstorm, while the GFS has a compromise in the middle. In a situation like this, I like to look at what errors the models have had with storms this year up to date and attempt to make my prediction based on how I think the models will correct. Right now I am leaning towards a blend of 35% the European  20% the GFS, 20% the Canadian, 15% the Japanese, and 10% the British model. This would result in a moderate snow event for the mid Atlantic states giving many areas some accumulating snow. It would not result in a powerful snowstorm. I think the European will correct north with time and the more progressive models will ease more towards the mean solution. So real quick here is what each model is showing...

Euro..


GFS
Canadian

Japanese..
As you can see this is not an easy forecast with such a spread in where this storm will set up along the coast. Here is my first take on who will be effected by this storm....


This is not my official prediction .I will mostly likely post that tomorrow and any snow accumulation map (if applicable) on Sat. For now I am going to stick with the idea that there will be a convergence to the middle of all these models solutions with a lean towards the north.

More Tonight.


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