Friday, March 22, 2013

Friday Morning: Forecast for Storm Monday (Subject to Change)

Good morning, as I said I would release my first prediction today for the storm on Sat. Keep in mind alot can still change on the modeling, but I have enough data to make a prediction. All week I have shown the different model solutions, some being south, some being more north, and I mentioned how I believe they would correct north with time. Since then they have, but some are still more north than others. Models such as the Canadian, Japanese, and now the North American Model give the northern parts of our forecast area a heavy spring snowstorm on the order or 6-12 inches. Some of the more reliable models give us less and would result in a light to possibly moderate event. Despite the fact the European model is by no question the best forecasting model available, it has over time shifted north this week which some of the less reliable models have insisted on all week. The same goes with the GFS. They both still only bring light snow to our area, but the trend I need to see is there...so here is my initial prediction of what will happen on Monday..a snowfall map will follow tomorrow..

Lets start off with the map I posted yesterday as a baseline...


I still like this as a proxy for who has best chance at accumulating snow over 2in. 

 Snow will spread into our region late Sunday night/early Monday morning picking up in intensity as the morning rolls on. Southern zone will see some rain to start as the surface will be too warm to support snow, but snow should mix in as well. For our northern counties north and west of I-95 all snow will fall. The higher accumulations should occur in this area as well. I do not expect much accumulation south of I-95 as the sun will warm the surface too much in those areas. The storm winds down by Monday evening. To speculate, and this is not yet my official accumulation prediction I would suggest that the northern counties see on the order of 4-8 inches from this event.

Keep checking in for updates on this system...at this point things can move to any extreme (more snow or less snow) by the time Monday rolls around.

More Tonight. 

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